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Serie A

Referee: Gianluca Manganiello

Atalanta

S S T U U

4–1

Full-time

Lecce

S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,5

1,3

Scored

2,2

0,8

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

1,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

1,0

Scored

1,0

0,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,12 xG 0,46

57% Possession 43%

19 Shots 12

8 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 13. · Lecce 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.5	9
2	Juventus	3	3	0	0	+4	+1.9	9
3	Cremonese	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
4	Roma	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.7	6
5	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.7	4
6	Udinese	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
7	Torino	3	1	1	1	-4	-1.9	4
8	Inter	3	1	0	2	+3	+1.7	3
9	Lazio	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.1	3
10	Milan	2	1	0	1	+1	+3.3	3
11	Como	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.7	3
12	Bologna	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.6	3
13	Atalanta	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.4	2
14	Fiorentina	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.1	2
15	Pisa	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.5	1
16	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
17	Lecce	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.7	1
18	Parma	3	0	1	2	-4	-1.0	1
19	Verona	2	0	1	1	-4	-3.4	1
20	Sassuolo	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.5	6
2	Cagliari	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.7	4
3	Inter	2	1	0	1	+4	+1.4	3
4	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+4	+3.2	3
5	Como	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.1	3
6	Cremonese	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
7	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
8	Bologna	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
9	Roma	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.5	3
10	Parma	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
11	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
12	Atalanta	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
13	Torino	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
14	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
15	Milan	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.7	0
16	Pisa	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
17	Fiorentina	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
18	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
19	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.5	6
2	Milan	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
3	Cremonese	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.7	3
4	Udinese	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
5	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
6	Roma	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
7	Torino	2	1	0	1	-4	-1.1	3
8	Fiorentina	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.6	2
9	Atalanta	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
10	Pisa	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
11	Lecce	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
12	Verona	2	0	1	1	-4	-3.4	1
13	Inter	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
14	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
15	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
16	Bologna	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
17	Como	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
18	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
19	Parma	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.