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Eredivisie

Referee: J Manschot

Excelsior

T T T T S

0–1

Full-time

Sparta Rotterdam

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Sparta Rotterdam

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,5

3,8

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

2,8

2,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 88%

75%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

4,3

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

2,8

Goal diff per game

-2,0

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,55 xG 1,59

53% Possession 47%

17 Shots 19

4 Shots on target 7

9 Blocked shots 7

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 8

4 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 16. · Sparta Rotterdam 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	4	0	1	+9	+3.0	12
2	Feyenoord	4	4	0	0	+8	+5.3	12
3	Ajax	5	3	2	0	+6	+6.7	11
4	Nijmegen	5	3	0	2	+8	+7.2	9
5	Utrecht	4	3	0	1	+8	+2.0	9
6	AZ Alkmaar	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.9	7
7	Groningen	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.2	6
8	Go Ahead Eagles	5	1	3	1	+0	-2.1	6
9	Zwolle	4	2	0	2	-1	-1.0	6
10	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	0	2	-5	-3.3	6
11	For Sittard	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.7	4
12	Telstar	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.8	4
13	Volendam	5	0	4	1	-3	-4.5	4
14	Twente	5	1	1	3	-3	+2.8	4
15	NAC Breda	5	1	1	3	-5	-7.1	4
16	Excelsior	4	1	0	3	-8	-5.5	3
17	Heerenveen	5	0	2	3	-3	+4.3	2
18	Heracles	4	0	0	4	-13	-7.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.0	9
2	Utrecht	2	2	0	0	+7	+1.9	6
3	Nijmegen	3	2	0	1	+6	+5.0	6
4	PSV Eindhoven	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.9	6
5	Groningen	2	2	0	0	+5	-0.0	6
6	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.9	6
7	For Sittard	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
8	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.6	4
9	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.1	3
10	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	+0	-3.6	3
11	NAC Breda	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
12	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
13	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	-3	-1.9	3
14	Volendam	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.6	2
15	Heerenveen	3	0	2	1	-1	+2.7	2
16	Twente	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.8	1
17	Telstar	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.1	1
18	Heracles	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.4	6
2	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.0	6
3	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.8	4
4	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.3	3
5	Utrecht	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.0	3
6	Zwolle	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.6	3
7	Telstar	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.7	3
8	Twente	3	1	0	2	-1	+2.1	3
9	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.4	3
10	Go Ahead Eagles	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.7	2
11	Ajax	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.7	2
12	Volendam	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.9	2
13	NAC Breda	3	0	1	2	-5	-7.5	1
14	For Sittard	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.3	0
15	Heerenveen	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.6	0
16	Groningen	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.2	0
17	Excelsior	2	0	0	2	-8	-1.9	0
18	Heracles	3	0	0	3	-10	-5.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.