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Eredivisie

Referee: M van den Kerkhof

Excelsior

S T T U T

0–3

Full-time

Nijmegen

T U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,2

This season — Eredivisie · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 24%

29%

19%

Points per game

1,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

52%

24%

Both score Ø 50%

48%

52%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

2,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

35% Possession 65%

10 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 15. · Nijmegen 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	22	14	7	1	+29	49
2	Ajax	22	13	7	2	+41	46
3	AZ Alkmaar	22	13	5	4	+20	44
4	PSV Eindhoven	22	13	4	5	+30	43
5	Twente	20	11	6	3	+21	39
6	Sparta Rotterdam	20	10	6	4	+12	36
7	Utrecht	21	8	7	6	-2	31
8	Waalwijk	22	7	8	7	+0	29
9	Heerenveen	21	7	6	8	-3	27
10	For Sittard	22	7	5	10	-9	26
11	Go Ahead Eagles	22	6	7	9	-6	25
12	Nijmegen	21	4	12	5	+2	24
13	Vitesse	22	5	8	9	-12	23
14	Volendam	22	5	5	12	-24	20
15	Excelsior	21	6	2	13	-28	20
16	FC Emmen	22	3	8	11	-20	17
17	Groningen	22	3	5	14	-26	14
18	Cambuur	22	3	4	15	-25	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Twente	11	9	2	0	+24	29
2	PSV Eindhoven	11	9	1	1	+27	28
3	Feyenoord	11	7	4	0	+17	25
4	Ajax	11	6	4	1	+25	22
5	Sparta Rotterdam	10	7	1	2	+11	22
6	Waalwijk	11	6	3	2	+11	21
7	AZ Alkmaar	10	5	4	1	+9	19
8	Utrecht	10	4	4	2	+1	16
9	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	4	4	-1	16
10	Excelsior	10	5	1	4	-3	16
11	Nijmegen	11	2	8	1	+6	14
12	FC Emmen	11	2	7	2	-2	13
13	Volendam	11	4	1	6	-9	13
14	For Sittard	11	3	3	5	-3	12
15	Heerenveen	10	3	2	5	-3	11
16	Vitesse	10	2	4	4	-9	10
17	Groningen	11	2	3	6	-7	9
18	Cambuur	12	1	0	11	-19	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	12	8	1	3	+11	25
2	Ajax	11	7	3	1	+16	24
3	Feyenoord	11	7	3	1	+12	24
4	Heerenveen	11	4	4	3	+0	16
5	PSV Eindhoven	11	4	3	4	+3	15
6	Utrecht	11	4	3	4	-3	15
7	Sparta Rotterdam	10	3	5	2	+1	14
8	For Sittard	11	4	2	5	-6	14
9	Vitesse	12	3	4	5	-3	13
10	Twente	9	2	4	3	-3	10
11	Nijmegen	10	2	4	4	-4	10
12	Cambuur	10	2	4	4	-6	10
13	Go Ahead Eagles	10	2	3	5	-5	9
14	Waalwijk	11	1	5	5	-11	8
15	Volendam	11	1	4	6	-15	7
16	Groningen	11	1	2	8	-19	5
17	FC Emmen	11	1	1	9	-18	4
18	Excelsior	11	1	1	9	-25	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.