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Serie A

Referee: A Di Martino

Cagliari

T U T T S

4–2

Full-time

Crotone

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Crotone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,5

This season — Serie A · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

1,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

75%

Average goals

4,0

3,5

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

2,5

2,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–2

43% Possession 57%

15 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Cagliari 13. · Crotone 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Sassuolo	5	3	2	0	+7	11
3	Inter	5	3	1	1	+5	10
4	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+11	9
5	Atalanta	5	3	0	2	+3	9
6	Sampdoria	5	3	0	2	+2	9
7	Verona	4	2	1	1	+3	7
8	Roma	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Lazio	5	2	1	2	-3	7
10	Benevento	4	2	0	2	-4	6
11	Juventus	3	1	2	0	+3	5
12	Fiorentina	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	-4	4
14	Spezia	4	1	1	2	-4	4
15	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-5	4
16	Bologna	5	1	0	4	-2	3
17	Udinese	4	1	0	3	-3	3
18	Parma	4	1	0	3	-5	3
19	Torino	4	0	1	3	-4	1
20	Crotone	4	0	1	3	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Verona	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+9	6
3	Milan	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Sassuolo	3	1	2	0	+3	5
5	Roma	2	1	1	0	+3	4
6	Lazio	3	1	1	1	-2	4
7	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Bologna	2	1	0	1	+2	3
9	Sampdoria	2	1	0	1	+2	3
10	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Genoa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Inter	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Parma	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Udinese	3	1	0	2	-2	3
16	Benevento	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Crotone	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Spezia	2	0	1	1	-3	1
19	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Torino	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Sassuolo	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Milan	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Sampdoria	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	-2	4
7	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Spezia	2	1	0	1	-1	3
9	Lazio	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Benevento	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Roma	2	1	0	1	-2	3
12	Juventus	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Fiorentina	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Torino	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-6	1
16	Verona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Udinese	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Parma	2	0	0	2	-4	0
19	Bologna	3	0	0	3	-4	0
20	Crotone	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.