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Referee: F Badstübner
Erzgebirge Aue
U T T S T
1–3
Full-time
M'gladbach
T U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Erzgebirge Aue M'gladbach
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,2
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,3
Scored
0,8
1,2
Conceded
2,3
2,2
Goal diff per game
-1,5
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

45% Possession 55%
13 Shots 25
3 Shots on target 11
3 Blocked shots 6
8 Goalkeeper saves 2
9 Corners 8
1 Offside 3
4 Free kicks against 15
3 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Erzgebirge Aue M'gladbach
1–0 M. Clausen ⚽
K. Jakob
8′
34′
⚽ F. Honorat 1–1
Half-time 1–1
Tim Hoffmann 🟨
49′
50′
❌ Julian Weigl
penalty missed
Kilian Jakob 🟨
51′
52′
⚽ L. Netz 1–2
A. Pléa
Martin Männel 🟨
53′
64′
🔁 M. Friedrich
↦ F. Chiarodia
70′
⚽ A. Pléa 1–3
R. Reitz
P. Fallmann 🔁
↦ M. Burghardt
72′
S. Seitz 🔁
↦ M. Clausen
72′
72′
🔁 P. Sander
↦ R. Reitz
72′
🔁 N. Ngoumou
↦ A. Pléa
R. Bornschein 🔁
↦ M. Bär
79′
O. Sijarić 🔁
↦ B. Tashchy
79′
86′
🔁 M. Koné
↦ K. Stöger
86′
🔁 T. Čvančara
↦ F. Honorat
W. Kallenbach 🔁
↦ M. Stefaniak
89′
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Erzgebirge Aue

4-2-3-1
1 M. Männel G
21 M. Burghardt D
23 A. Barylla D
19 T. Hoffmann D
26 K. Jakob D
10 M. Pepić M
13 E. Majetschak M
8 M. Clausen M
14 B. Tashchy M
34 M. Stefaniak M
15 M. Bär F
Bench (9)
17 P. Fallmann
7 S. Seitz
9 R. Bornschein
11 O. Sijarić
18 W. Kallenbach
24 S. Nkansah
5 E. Emmerich
22 L. Lord
20 J. Fabisch

Coach: P. Dochev

M'gladbach

4-2-3-1
1 J. Omlin G
29 J. Scally D
3 K. Itakura D
2 F. Chiarodia D
20 L. Netz D
27 R. Reitz M
8 J. Weigl M
9 F. Honorat M
7 K. Stöger M
14 A. Pléa M
11 T. Kleindienst F
Bench (9)
5 M. Friedrich
16 P. Sander
19 N. Ngoumou
17 M. Koné
31 T. Čvančara
33 M. Nicolas
28 G. Ranos
10 F. Neuhaus
22 S. Lainer

Coach: G. Seoane

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Badstübner · 96 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.