Europa League
Referee: Srdan Jovanovic
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
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Who wins?
Pro
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Team trends
Midtjylland
KuPS
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
2,8
1,7
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
0,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 4/2 matches
Win Ø 88%
75%
100%
Points per game
2,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 63%
75%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,0
Scored
2,0
1,5
Conceded
0,8
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,0
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Goal markets
Pro
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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Most likely result
Pro
The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Match stats
Half-time score: 2–0
48%
Possession
52%
13
Shots
4
9
Shots on target
2
2
Blocked shots
1
2
Goalkeeper saves
4
4
Corners
5
0
Offside
1
11
Free kicks against
10
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
Match report
Midtjylland
KuPS
1–0 A. Buksa
⚽
D. Osorio
2–0 D. Osorio
⚽
A. Simsir
🟨
Ibrahim Cissé
Half-time 2–0
V. Byskov
🔁
↦ Franculino
M. Gogorza
🔁
↦ A. Simsir
Junior Brumado
🔁
↦ A. Buksa
🔁
P. Parzyszek
↦ S. Pasanen
🔁
P. Konate
↦ B. Armah
Martin Erlić
🟨
🔁
J. Luyeye-Lutumba
↦ M. Toure
🟨
Petteri Pennanen
Dani Silva
🔁
↦ D. Castillo
3–0 Junior Brumado
⚽
M. Bech Sorensen
E. Chilufya
🔁
↦ D. Osorio
🔁
J. Voutilainen
↦ P. Pennanen
🔁
A. Sadiku
↦ O. Ruoppi
4–0 Junior Brumado
⚽
K. Mbabu
Full-time 4–0
Line-ups
Midtjylland
4-4-2
16
E. Olafsson
G
E. Olafsson
G
43
K. Mbabu
D
K. Mbabu
D
6
M. Erlic
D
M. Erlic
D
22
M. Bech Sorensen
D
M. Bech Sorensen
D
29
Paulinho
D
11
D. Osorio
M
D. Osorio
M
19
P. Bravo
M
P. Bravo
M
21
D. Castillo
M
D. Castillo
M
58
A. Simsir
M
A. Simsir
M
9
A. Buksa
F
A. Buksa
F
7
Franculino
F
Franculino
F
Bench (12)
1
J. Lossl
31
L. Selin
3
Lee Han-Beom
10
Cho Gue-Sung
13
A. Gabriel
14
E. Chilufya
20
V. Byskov
41
M. Gogorza
55
V. Bak
74
Junior Brumado
80
Dani Silva
90
F. Etim
Coach: Mike Tullberg
KuPS
4-3-3
1
J. Kreidl
G
6
S. Savolainen
F
15
I. Cisse
D
I. Cisse
D
33
T. Hamalainen
D
24
B. Armah
M
14
S. Pasanen
M
10
D. Arifi
M
D. Arifi
M
13
J. Oksanen
M
34
O. Ruoppi
M
O. Ruoppi
M
20
M. Toure
F
8
P. Pennanen
M
Bench (8)
12
A. Hakala
37
M. Pitkanen
4
P. Ricardo
7
J. Voutilainen
9
P. Parzyszek
11
A. Sadiku
21
J. Luyeye-Lutumba
22
P. Konate
Coach: Jarkko Juhani Wiss
Odds comparison
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Recent matches
17. Aug
SL
1 year ago
Vejle
Midtjylland
0
2
13,42
X3,80
21,89
−2,5
BLS
S
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14. Aug
EL
1 year ago
Midtjylland
Fredrikstad
2
0
1–
X–
2–
−2,5
BLS
S
10. Aug
SL
1 year ago
Midtjylland
Fredericia
3
3
11,35
X5,20
26,69
+2,5
BLS
U
🔒
7. Aug
EL
1 year ago
Fredrikstad
Midtjylland
1
3
1–
X–
2–
+2,5
BLS
S
3. Aug
SL
1 year ago
Aarhus
Midtjylland
0
0
12,37
X3,55
22,67
−2,5
BLS
U
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The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.