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Ligue 1
Referee: B Dechepy
Lens
T S S S U
2–0
Full-time
St Etienne
S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens St Etienne
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,5
2,5
Scored
1,5
1,5
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,5
This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 60%
60%
60%
Points per game
2,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
60%
40%
Both score Ø 50%
80%
20%
Average goals
2,8
2,6
Scored
1,6
1,6
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

66% Possession 34%
13 Shots 2
5 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
12 Corners 0
2 Offside 0
23 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 2
The table before the match Lens 7. · St Etienne 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Rennes 5 4 1 0 +7 13
2 Paris SG 6 4 0 2 +9 12
3 Lille 5 3 2 0 +4 11
4 Montpellier 5 3 1 1 +5 10
5 St Etienne 5 3 1 1 +3 10
6 Monaco 5 3 1 1 +2 10
7 Lens 5 3 1 1 +2 10
8 Angers 6 3 0 3 -7 9
9 Marseille 5 2 2 1 +0 8
10 Nice 5 2 1 2 -2 7
11 Lyon 5 1 3 1 +2 6
12 Bordeaux 5 1 3 1 +1 6
13 Brest 5 2 0 3 -3 6
14 Nimes 5 1 2 2 +1 5
15 Nantes 5 1 2 2 -2 5
16 Lorient 5 1 1 3 -2 4
17 Metz 5 1 1 3 -2 4
18 Strasbourg 5 1 0 4 -6 3
19 Reims 5 0 1 4 -5 1
20 Dijon 5 0 1 4 -7 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lens St Etienne
14′
🟥 Timothée Kolodziejczak
S. Banza 🔁
↦ I. Ganago
15′
1–0 G. Kakuta
15′
16′
🔁 S. Sow
↦ M. Rivera
Facundo Medina ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
22′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 W. Khazri
↦ A. Aouchiche
64′
🟨 Yvann Maçon
64′
🟥 Wahbi Khazri
Gaël Kakuta 🟨
67′
T. Mauricio 🔁
↦ G. Kakuta
71′
71′
🔁 Z. Youssouf
↦ A. Nordin
71′
🔁 R. Hamouma
↦ D. Bouanga
2–0 F. Sotoca
T. Mauricio
81′
M. Perez 🔁
↦ C. Doucouré
83′
I. Boura 🔁
↦ M. Haïdara
83′
C. Jean 🔁
↦ F. Sotoca
83′
85′
🔁 L. Gourna-Douath
↦ Y. Neyou Noupa
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Lens

3-4-1-2
16 J. Leca G
21 M. Haïdara M
11 J. Clauss M
24 J. Gradit D
14 F. Medina D
4 L. Badé D
18 Y. Cahuzac M
10 G. Kakuta F
28 C. Doucouré M
7 F. Sotoca F
27 I. Ganago F
Bench (9)
23 S. Banza
22 T. Mauricio
6 M. Perez
33 I. Boura
25 C. Jean
31 C. Bayala
15 Steven Fortès
30 W. Fariñez
34 David Costa

Coach: F. Haise

St Etienne

4-1-4-1
30 J. Moulin G
5 T. Kolodziejczak D
2 H. Moukoudi D
31 N. Sissoko D
27 Y. Maçon D
8 M. Camara M
19 Y. Neyou Noupa M
17 A. Aouchiche M
20 D. Bouanga F
18 A. Nordin M
32 M. Rivera M
Bench (9)
35 S. Sow
10 W. Khazri
28 Z. Youssouf
21 R. Hamouma
33 L. Gourna-Douath
22 K. Monnet-Paquet
1 S. Bajic
34 A. Moueffek
14 J. Krasso

Coach: C. Puel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,04
U
3,38
B
3,76
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,18
U2,5 ✓
1,68
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

B Dechepy · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.