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Premier League

Referee: D Coote

Aston Villa

U T S S T

2–0

Full-time

Newcastle

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

4,0

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

5,0

6,0

Scored

2,0

Conceded

3,0

4,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

10 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 4

3 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 11. · Newcastle 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	2	2	0	+5	6
2	Man United	1	1	0	+4	3
3	Chelsea	1	1	0	+3	3
4	West Ham	1	1	0	+2	3
5	Everton	1	1	0	+2	3
6	Brentford	1	1	0	+2	3
7	Watford	1	1	0	+1	3
8	Brighton	1	1	0	+1	3
9	Tottenham	1	1	0	+1	3
10	Leicester	1	1	0	+1	3
11	Aston Villa	1	0	1	-1	0
12	Man City	1	0	1	-1	0
13	Wolves	1	0	1	-1	0
14	Newcastle	1	0	1	-2	0
15	Southampton	1	0	1	-2	0
16	Arsenal	1	0	1	-2	0
17	Burnley	2	0	2	-3	0
18	Norwich	1	0	1	-3	0
19	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	-3	0
20	Leeds	1	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	1	1	0	+4	3
2	Chelsea	1	1	0	+3	3
3	Everton	1	1	0	+2	3
4	Liverpool	1	1	0	+2	3
5	Brentford	1	1	0	+2	3
6	Watford	1	1	0	+1	3
7	Tottenham	1	1	0	+1	3
8	Leicester	1	1	0	+1	3
9	Burnley	1	0	1	-1	0
10	Newcastle	1	0	1	-2	0
11	Norwich	1	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	1	1	0	+3	3
2	West Ham	1	1	0	+2	3
3	Brighton	1	1	0	+1	3
4	Aston Villa	1	0	1	-1	0
5	Man City	1	0	1	-1	0
6	Wolves	1	0	1	-1	0
7	Southampton	1	0	1	-2	0
8	Burnley	1	0	1	-2	0
9	Arsenal	1	0	1	-2	0
10	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	-3	0
11	Leeds	1	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.