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Ekstraklasa

Referee: Szymon Marciniak

Nieciecza

T S T U S

2–3

Full-time

Rakow

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nieciecza Rakow

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 4/3 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

25%

67%

Both score Ø 46%

25%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

47% Possession 53%

9 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 10

5 Blocked shots 1

7 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nieciecza 6. · Rakow 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Wisla Plock	4	3	1	0	+5	+4.8	10
2	Cracovia	5	3	1	1	+3	+2.5	10
3	Gornik Zabrze	5	3	0	2	+3	-0.2	9
4	Jagiellonia	4	3	0	1	+1	-2.5	9
5	Legia	3	2	1	0	+4	+3.6	7
6	Nieciecza	4	2	1	1	+3	-0.2	7
7	Radomiak Radom	5	2	1	2	+2	-0.1	7
8	Widzew Lodz	5	2	1	2	+2	+2.2	7
9	Lech Poznan	4	2	1	1	-1	+3.4	7
10	Zaglebie	4	1	2	1	+3	+2.2	5
11	Korona Kielce	5	1	2	2	-1	-2.1	5
12	Motor Lublin	4	1	2	1	-2	-1.0	5
13	Arka Gdynia	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.8	5
14	GKS Katowice	5	1	1	3	-3	-5.4	4
15	Pogon Szczecin	5	1	1	3	-5	+2.0	4
16	Rakow	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.3	3
17	Lechia Gdansk	5	0	2	3	-6	-4.3	2
18	Piast Gliwice	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Widzew Lodz	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.1	7
2	Cracovia	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.6	7
3	Radomiak Radom	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.2	6
4	Wisla Plock	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.8	6
5	Jagiellonia	3	2	0	1	+0	-2.5	6
6	Zaglebie	2	1	1	0	+4	+1.2	4
7	GKS Katowice	3	1	1	1	+2	-3.0	4
8	Legia	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.3	4
9	Arka Gdynia	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.8	4
10	Motor Lublin	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.9	4
11	Lech Poznan	3	1	1	1	-2	+1.7	4
12	Korona Kielce	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.0	3
13	Pogon Szczecin	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.3	3
14	Gornik Zabrze	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.4	3
15	Nieciecza	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
16	Lechia Gdansk	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.2	1
17	Rakow	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
18	Piast Gliwice	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nieciecza	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.5	6
2	Gornik Zabrze	3	2	0	1	+3	-1.7	6
3	Wisla Plock	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.0	4
4	Legia	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
5	Lech Poznan	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.8	3
6	Jagiellonia	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
7	Cracovia	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.0	3
8	Rakow	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.8	3
9	Korona Kielce	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.2	2
10	Zaglebie	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.0	1
11	Piast Gliwice	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.8	1
12	Motor Lublin	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.9	1
13	Radomiak Radom	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.3	1
14	Arka Gdynia	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.0	1
15	Lechia Gdansk	3	0	1	2	-5	-4.2	1
16	Pogon Szczecin	3	0	1	2	-5	+1.6	1
17	Widzew Lodz	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.1	0
18	GKS Katowice	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.