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DFB-Pokal
Referee: R Hempel
Ulm
T S T T U
0–1
Full-time
Elversberg
S U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ulm Elversberg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,5
2,7
Scored
1,3
1,5
Conceded
2,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

42% Possession 58%
9 Shots 20
0 Shots on target 5
5 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 0
3 Corners 10
2 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 7
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Wolfsburg 1 1 0 0 +9 3
2 Kaiserslautern 1 1 0 0 +7 3
3 Ein Frankfurt 1 1 0 0 +5 3
4 Union Berlin 1 1 0 0 +5 3
5 Heidenheim 1 1 0 0 +5 3
6 Karlsruhe 1 1 0 0 +5 3
7 Hoffenheim 1 1 0 0 +4 3
8 Leverkusen 1 1 0 0 +4 3
9 RB Leipzig 1 1 0 0 +2 3
10 Magdeburg 1 1 0 0 +2 3
11 Paderborn 1 1 0 0 +2 3
12 Bochum 1 1 0 0 +2 3
13 Greuther Furth 1 1 0 0 +2 3
14 Freiburg 1 1 0 0 +2 3
15 M'gladbach 1 1 0 0 +1 3
16 FC Koln 1 1 0 0 +1 3
17 Darmstadt 1 1 0 0 +1 3
18 Hamburg 1 1 0 0 +1 3
19 Bielefeld 1 1 0 0 +1 3
20 Cottbus 1 1 0 0 +1 3
21 Schalke 04 1 1 0 0 +1 3
22 Illertissen 1 0 1 0 +0 1
23 Nurnberg 1 0 1 0 +0 1
24 Eintracht Norderstedt 1 0 1 0 +0 1
25 St Pauli 1 0 1 0 +0 1
26 Atlas Delmenhorst 1 0 0 1 -1 0
27 Regensburg 1 0 0 1 -1 0
28 VfB Lubeck 1 0 0 1 -1 0
29 Pirmasens 1 0 0 1 -1 0
30 Werder Bremen 1 0 0 1 -1 0
31 Hannover 1 0 0 1 -1 0
32 Lokomotive Leipzig 1 0 0 1 -1 0
33 Sandhausen 1 0 0 1 -2 0
34 FC Saarbrücken 1 0 0 1 -2 0
35 FC Viktoria Koln 1 0 0 1 -2 0
36 BFC Dynamo 1 0 0 1 -2 0
37 BW Lohne 1 0 0 1 -2 0
38 Sportfreunde Lotte 1 0 0 1 -2 0
39 Hansa Rostock 1 0 0 1 -4 0
40 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1 0 0 1 -4 0
41 FV Engers 07 1 0 0 1 -5 0
42 FC Gutersloh 1 0 0 1 -5 0
43 Bahlinger SC 1 0 0 1 -5 0
44 ZFC Meuselwitz 1 0 0 1 -5 0
45 RSV Eintracht 1 0 0 1 -7 0
46 Hemelingen 1 0 0 1 -9 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ulm Elversberg
35′
🟨 Amara Condé
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 C. Sickinger
↦ A. Conde
63′
🔁 F. Schmahl
↦ L. Poreba
63′
🔁 F. Keidel
↦ L. Gunther
P. Besong 🔁
↦ A. Kahvic
69′
N. Kolle 🔁
↦ J. Meier
69′
Paul-Philipp Besong 🟨
71′
73′
F. Keidel 0–1
N. H. Castelle 🔁
↦ D. Chessa
77′
A. Becker 🔁
↦ L. Roser
77′
Lukas Mazagg 🟨
83′
84′
🔁 L. Schnellbacher
↦ Y. Ebnoutalib
M. Wenig 🔁
↦ M. Seegert
87′
92′
🔁 M. Feil
↦ T. Zimmerschied
Jan Boller 🟨
94′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Ulm

3-4-1-2
39 C. Ortag G
34 J. Boller D
21 M. Seegert D
27 L. Mazagg D
28 M. Scholze M
14 D. Dressel M
23 M. Brandt M
19 J. Meier M
11 D. Chessa F
22 A. Kahvic F
9 L. Roser F
Bench (9)
1 M. Schmitt
6 M. Wenig
8 B. Westermeier
15 J. David
17 P. Besong
25 E. Loder
32 N. Kolle
44 N. H. Castelle
49 A. Becker

Coach: Pavel Dotchev

Elversberg

4-2-3-1
20 N. Kristof G
30 J. Gyamerah D
19 L. Pinckert D
3 F. Le Joncour D
21 L. Gunther D
8 L. Poreba M
6 A. Conde M
25 L. Petkov M
10 B. Conte M
29 T. Zimmerschied M
22 Y. Ebnoutalib F
Bench (9)
28 T. Boss
2 N. Mickelson
7 M. Feil
11 J. Ceka
17 F. Schmahl
23 C. Sickinger
24 L. Schnellbacher
31 M. Rohr
43 F. Keidel

Coach: Vincent Wagner

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

R Hempel · 39 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.