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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Burnley

S T T U S

2–1

Full-time

Portsmouth

T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Portsmouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

60%

Points per game

2,0

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

40%

80%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

2,8

3,4

Scored

2,2

1,2

Conceded

0,6

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,04 xG 1,38

70% Possession 30%

18 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 2

2 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 4

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 5. · Portsmouth 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	6	5	0	1	+9	+4.1	15
2	West Brom	5	4	1	0	+7	+3.9	13
3	Blackburn	5	3	2	0	+6	-0.6	11
4	Sheffield United	5	3	2	0	+5	+2.3	11
5	Burnley	5	3	1	1	+8	-0.4	10
6	Watford	6	3	1	2	+1	-2.1	10
7	Oxford	5	3	0	2	+3	-0.3	9
8	Derby	5	3	0	2	+2	-0.2	9
9	Leeds	5	2	2	1	+3	+4.8	8
10	Norwich	6	2	2	2	+1	+2.1	8
11	Middlesbrough	6	2	2	2	+1	+6.3	8
12	Swansea	5	2	1	2	+2	-2.4	7
13	QPR	6	1	4	1	-1	-0.7	7
14	Hull	6	1	3	2	-2	+0.5	6
15	Stoke	6	2	0	4	-5	-1.4	6
16	Millwall	6	1	2	3	+0	+4.4	5
17	Coventry	5	1	2	2	-1	+2.9	5
18	Plymouth	5	1	2	2	-4	-7.3	5
19	Bristol City	5	1	2	2	-5	-0.7	5
20	Luton	5	1	1	3	-4	+1.5	4
21	Sheffield Weds	5	1	1	3	-5	-0.8	4
22	Preston	5	1	1	3	-6	-5.4	4
23	Portsmouth	5	0	3	2	-5	-7.5	3
24	Cardiff	5	0	1	4	-10	-3.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Blackburn	3	3	0	0	+6	+1.1	9
2	Sunderland	3	3	0	0	+6	+1.8	9
3	Oxford	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.6	9
4	Derby	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.2	9
5	Watford	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.3	7
6	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+4	+2.0	7
7	Norwich	3	1	2	0	+3	+2.4	5
8	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+1	+5.4	5
9	Burnley	2	1	1	0	+5	+0.7	4
10	Sheffield Weds	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.2	4
11	Leeds	3	1	1	1	+1	+4.0	4
12	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
13	Sheffield United	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.5	4
14	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.9	4
15	Plymouth	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.9	4
16	Millwall	3	1	0	2	+1	+3.9	3
17	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.6	3
18	Preston	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.8	3
19	Stoke	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.1	3
20	QPR	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.4	2
21	Hull	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.9	2
22	Portsmouth	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.2	1
23	Luton	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.5	0
24	Cardiff	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.0	9
2	Sheffield United	3	2	1	0	+4	-0.2	7
3	Sunderland	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.3	6
4	Burnley	3	2	0	1	+3	-1.1	6
5	QPR	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.1	5
6	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.8	4
7	Hull	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.3	4
8	Luton	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.0	4
9	Middlesbrough	3	1	0	2	+0	+0.9	3
10	Norwich	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.3	3
11	Watford	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.4	3
12	Stoke	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.3	3
13	Portsmouth	2	0	2	0	+0	-4.3	2
14	Blackburn	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.7	2
15	Millwall	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.5	2
16	Coventry	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.3	2
17	Plymouth	2	0	1	1	-4	-6.5	1
18	Preston	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.6	1
19	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-6	-2.0	1
20	Bristol City	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.3	1
21	Oxford	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.9	0
22	Swansea	2	0	0	2	-2	-4.3	0
23	Derby	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.4	0
24	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-7	-3.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.