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Taça de Portugal

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 FC Serpa 2 2 0 0 +11 6
2 Vianense 2 2 0 0 +6 6
3 Montalegre 2 2 0 0 +6 6
4 Sanjoanense 2 2 0 0 +5 6
5 Varzim 2 2 0 0 +2 6
6 Oliveira Hospital 2 1 1 0 +1 4
7 Benfica Castelo Branco 2 1 0 1 +7 3
8 Pêro Pinheiro 1 1 0 0 +6 3
9 São João Ver 1 1 0 0 +6 3
10 Beira-Mar 1 1 0 0 +6 3
11 Fafe 1 1 0 0 +5 3
12 Leixoes 1 1 0 0 +5 3
13 UD da Serra 1 1 0 0 +4 3
14 Merelinense 1 1 0 0 +4 3
15 Valadares Gaia 1 1 0 0 +3 3
16 Olhanense 1 1 0 0 +3 3
17 Felgueiras 1932 1 1 0 0 +3 3
18 Dumiense 1 1 0 0 +3 3
19 Juventude Évora 1 1 0 0 +3 3
20 Belenenses 1 1 0 0 +3 3
21 Vilaverdense 1 1 0 0 +2 3
22 Moreirense 1 1 0 0 +2 3
23 CF Os Belenenses 1 1 0 0 +2 3
24 Alverca 1 1 0 0 +2 3
25 Lagos 1 1 0 0 +2 3
26 Canelas 2010 1 1 0 0 +2 3
27 Fontinhas 1 1 0 0 +2 3
28 Ferreiras 1 1 0 0 +2 3
29 Praiense 1 1 0 0 +1 3
30 Bragança 1 1 0 0 +1 3
31 Resende 1 1 0 0 +1 3
32 Oriental Dragon 1 1 0 0 +1 3
33 Gondomar 1 1 0 0 +1 3
34 Sertanense 1 1 0 0 +1 3
35 Oriental Lisboa 1 1 0 0 +1 3
36 Sintrense 1 1 0 0 +1 3
37 Camacha 1 1 0 0 +1 3
38 União Santarém 1 1 0 0 +1 3
39 Tirsense 1 1 0 0 +1 3
40 Paredes 1 1 0 0 +1 3
41 Farense 1 1 0 0 +1 3
42 Pevidem 1 1 0 0 +1 3
43 Os Marialvas 2 1 0 1 +0 3
44 Arronches e Benfica 2 1 0 1 +0 3
45 União de Leiria 2 1 0 1 +0 3
46 Lajense 2 1 0 1 -1 3
47 Joane 2 1 0 1 -2 3
48 Pombal 1 0 1 0 +0 1
49 União de Tomar 1 0 1 0 +0 1
50 Estrela 1 0 1 0 +0 1
51 Lusitânia 1 0 0 1 -1 0
52 Freamunde 1 0 0 1 -1 0
53 São Roque (Açores) 1 0 0 1 -1 0
54 Monção 1 0 0 1 -1 0
55 Leça 1 0 0 1 -1 0
56 1º Dezembro 1 0 0 1 -1 0
57 Vila Meã 1 0 0 1 -1 0
58 Rebordosa 1 0 0 1 -1 0
59 Alcains 1 0 0 1 -1 0
60 Madalena 1 0 0 1 -1 0
61 Fazendense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
62 Amarante 1 0 0 1 -1 0
63 Marinhense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
64 Gavionenses 1 0 0 1 -1 0
65 Santa Eulália 1 0 0 1 -1 0
66 Alpendorada 1 0 0 1 -1 0
67 Lusitânia Lourosa 1 0 0 1 -1 0
68 Feirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
69 Águeda 1 0 0 1 -1 0
70 Atlético Arcos 1 0 0 1 -2 0
71 Vila Cortez 1 0 0 1 -2 0
72 Torreense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
73 UD Rio Maior 1 0 0 1 -2 0
74 Comércio Indústria 1 0 0 1 -2 0
75 Régua 1 0 0 1 -2 0
76 Lusitano Évora 1911 1 0 0 1 -2 0
77 Mosteirense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
78 Culatrense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
79 Salgueiros 1 0 0 1 -3 0
80 Atlético Reguengos 1 0 0 1 -3 0
81 Mondinense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
82 Brito 1 0 0 1 -3 0
83 Moncarapachense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
84 Lusitano FCV 1 0 0 1 -3 0
85 Castrense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
86 Pedrógão São Pedro 1 0 0 1 -4 0
87 Maria da Fonte 1 0 0 1 -4 0
88 Vinhais 1 0 0 1 -4 0
89 Ribeira Brava 1 0 0 1 -5 0
90 Rebordelo 1 0 0 1 -5 0
91 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 1 0 0 1 -5 0
92 AD Portomosense 1 0 0 1 -6 0
93 Mortágua 1 0 0 1 -6 0
94 Sporting Mêda 1 0 0 1 -6 0
95 Águias do Moradal 1 0 0 1 -8 0
96 1º Maio Funchal 1 0 0 1 -8 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Recent matches

No matches played yet.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.