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Premier League
Referee: M Oliver
Man City
S U S S S
6–3
Full-time
Man United
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Man United
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 83%
83%
83%
Points per game
2,7
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
4,0
2,0
Scored
3,3
1,5
Conceded
0,7
0,5
Goal diff per game
+2,7
+1,0
This season — Premier League · 7/6 matches
Win Ø 69%
71%
67%
Points per game
2,4
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
71%
67%
Both score Ø 47%
43%
50%
Average goals
4,1
2,7
Scored
3,3
1,3
Conceded
0,9
1,3
Goal diff per game
+2,4
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

54% Possession 46%
22 Shots 12
10 Shots on target 8
6 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 1
1 Offside 0
3 Free kicks against 9
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Man City 2. · Man United 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Arsenal 8 7 0 1 +12 21
2 Man City 7 5 2 0 +17 17
3 Tottenham 8 5 2 1 +9 17
4 Brighton 7 4 2 1 +6 14
5 Chelsea 7 4 1 2 +0 13
6 Man United 6 4 0 2 +0 12
7 Newcastle 8 2 5 1 +4 11
8 Fulham 8 3 2 3 -2 11
9 Liverpool 7 2 4 1 +9 10
10 Brentford 8 2 4 2 +3 10
11 Everton 8 2 4 2 +0 10
12 Bournemouth 8 2 3 3 -13 9
13 Leeds 6 2 2 2 +0 8
14 Aston Villa 7 2 1 4 -4 7
15 West Ham 8 2 1 5 -4 7
16 Southampton 8 2 1 5 -5 7
17 Crystal Palace 7 1 3 3 -3 6
18 Wolves 8 1 3 4 -6 6
19 Nott'm Forest 7 1 1 5 -11 4
20 Leicester 7 0 1 6 -12 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Man City Man United
2′
🟨 Diogo Dalot
1–0 P. Foden
Bernardo Silva
8′
23′
🟨 Tyrell Malacia
2–0 E. Haaland
K. De Bruyne
34′
3–0 E. Haaland
K. De Bruyne
37′
40′
🔁 V. Lindelöf
↦ R. Varane
Sergio Gómez 🔁
↦ K. Walker
41′
4–0 P. Foden
E. Haaland
44′
Half-time 4–0
46′
🔁 L. Shaw
↦ T. Malacia
56′
Antony 4–1
C. Eriksen
59′
🔁 Casemiro
↦ S. McTominay
59′
🔁 A. Martial
↦ M. Rashford
5–1 E. Haaland
Sergio Gómez
64′
Erling Haaland ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
66′
70′
🔁 Fred
↦ J. Sancho
6–1 P. Foden
E. Haaland
73′
Phil Foden ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
74′
Aymeric Laporte 🔁
↦ İ. Gündoğan
75′
C. Palmer 🔁
↦ J. Grealish
75′
J. Álvarez 🔁
↦ K. De Bruyne
75′
R. Mahrez 🔁
↦ P. Foden
75′
80′
🟨 Bruno Fernandes
84′
A. Martial 6–2
91′
A. Martial 6–3
Full-time 6–3

Line-ups

Man City

4-3-3
31 Ederson G
2 K. Walker D
25 M. Akanji D
6 N. Aké D
7 João Cancelo D
17 K. De Bruyne M
8 İ. Gündoğan M
20 Bernardo Silva M
47 P. Foden F
9 E. Haaland F
10 J. Grealish F
Bench (9)
21 Sergio Gómez
14 Aymeric Laporte
80 C. Palmer
19 J. Álvarez
26 R. Mahrez
33 S. Carson
82 R. Lewis
18 S. Ortega
3 Rúben Dias

Coach: Pep Guardiola

Man United

4-2-3-1
1 David de Gea G
20 Diogo Dalot D
19 R. Varane D
6 Lisandro Martínez D
12 T. Malacia D
39 S. McTominay M
14 C. Eriksen M
21 Antony M
8 Bruno Fernandes M
25 J. Sancho M
10 M. Rashford F
Bench (9)
2 V. Lindelöf
23 L. Shaw
18 Casemiro
9 A. Martial
17 Fred
7 Cristiano Ronaldo
22 T. Heaton
36 A. Elanga
28 F. Pellistri

Coach: E. ten Hag

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,35
U
5,70
B
8,00
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,44
U2,5
2,79
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Oliver · 207 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.