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Taça de Portugal

Gondomar

2–3

Full-time

Penafiel

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	FC Serpa	2	2	0	0	+11	6
2	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+9	6
3	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Montalegre	2	2	0	0	+6	6
5	Sanjoanense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
6	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Camacha	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
10	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+6	3
11	Beira-Mar	1	1	0	0	+6	3
12	Fafe	1	1	0	0	+5	3
13	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+5	3
14	UD da Serra	1	1	0	0	+4	3
15	Merelinense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
16	Valadares Gaia	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Olhanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Juventude Évora	1	1	0	0	+3	3
21	Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+3	3
22	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Ferreiras	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	Praiense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Bragança	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Oriental Dragon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Gondomar	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Oriental Lisboa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Farense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
43	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
44	União de Leiria	2	1	0	1	+0	3
45	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
46	Lagos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
47	Joane	2	1	0	1	-2	3
48	Pombal	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
82	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
83	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
84	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
85	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
86	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
87	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
88	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
89	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
90	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
91	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
92	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
93	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
94	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
95	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
96	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0
97	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+9	6
2	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
5	Pêro Pinheiro	1	1	0	0	+6	3
6	Fafe	1	1	0	0	+5	3
7	UD da Serra	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Valadares Gaia	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Juventude Évora	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Vilaverdense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Lagos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Ferreiras	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Bragança	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Oriental Dragon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Gondomar	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Oriental Lisboa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	União Santarém	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
29	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
30	Pombal	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	União de Leiria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
43	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
44	Joane	1	0	0	1	-3	0
45	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
46	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
47	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
48	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
49	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
50	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Montalegre	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+8	3
4	Beira-Mar	1	1	0	0	+6	3
5	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+5	3
6	Merelinense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Olhanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Praiense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Joane	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Tirsense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Paredes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Farense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Camacha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
36	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
37	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
38	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
39	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
45	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
46	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
47	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
48	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
49	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
50	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
51	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
52	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
53	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
54	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Gondomar Penafiel

Half-time 1–0

1–0 ⚽

46′

54′

⚽ 1–1

2–1 ⚽

78′

91′

⚽ 2–2

95′

⚽ 2–3

Full-time 2–3

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

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B ✓

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Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

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U1,5

–

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O2,5 ✓

–

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U2,5

–

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O3,5 ✓

–

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U3,5

–

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Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

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BLS nei

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Recent matches

11. Sep TP 4 years ago

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Odds comparison

Recent matches