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Taça de Portugal
Referee: José Bessa
Guimaraes
S S S T T
4–1
Full-time
Vilaverdense
S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Vilaverdense
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,0
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,7
4,5
Scored
2,5
3,3
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+2,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Taça de Portugal · 1/2 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
4,0
5,0
Scored
3,0
4,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+3,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

8 Corners 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Guimaraes 47. · Vilaverdense 9.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Maritimo 3 3 0 0 +7 9
2 Nacional 3 2 1 0 +7 7
3 Paredes 3 2 1 0 +5 7
4 Penafiel 3 2 1 0 +4 7
5 FC Serpa 4 2 1 1 +1 7
6 Montalegre 4 2 1 1 -1 7
7 União de Leiria 2 2 0 0 +14 6
8 Mafra 2 2 0 0 +7 6
9 Vilaverdense 2 2 0 0 +6 6
10 Tondela 2 2 0 0 +6 6
11 Porto 2 2 0 0 +6 6
12 Sp Braga 2 2 0 0 +5 6
13 Santa Clara 2 2 0 0 +5 6
14 Felgueiras 1932 3 2 0 1 +3 6
15 Vianense 3 2 0 1 +3 6
16 Academica 3 2 0 1 +3 6
17 Amarante 2 2 0 0 +3 6
18 Dumiense 2 2 0 0 +2 6
19 Vizela 2 2 0 0 +2 6
20 Torreense 2 2 0 0 +2 6
21 Gil Vicente 2 2 0 0 +2 6
22 Rebordosa 3 2 0 1 +1 6
23 CD Olivais e Moscavide 3 2 0 1 +1 6
24 Sintrense 3 2 0 1 -2 6
25 Pêro Pinheiro 3 1 2 0 +1 5
26 Alverca 2 1 1 0 +13 4
27 Benfica Castelo Branco 2 1 1 0 +7 4
28 Valadares Gaia 2 1 1 0 +4 4
29 Canelas 2010 3 1 1 1 +3 4
30 Tirsense 2 1 1 0 +2 4
31 AD Marco 09 2 1 1 0 +2 4
32 Casa Pia 2 1 1 0 +2 4
33 Lusitano Évora 1911 2 1 1 0 +2 4
34 Leixoes 2 1 1 0 +1 4
35 O Elvas 2 1 1 0 +1 4
36 Vitoria Setubal 3 1 1 1 +0 4
37 Lusitânia Lourosa 2 1 0 1 +9 3
38 Amora 2 1 0 1 +7 3
39 União Santarém 2 1 0 1 +5 3
40 Estoril 1 1 0 0 +5 3
41 Famalicao 1 1 0 0 +5 3
42 Oliveira Hospital 2 1 0 1 +4 3
43 Benfica 1 1 0 0 +3 3
44 Moncarapachense 2 1 0 1 +2 3
45 Vilar de Perdizes 2 1 0 1 +2 3
46 Juventude Évora 2 1 0 1 +2 3
47 Guimaraes 1 1 0 0 +2 3
48 Vila Meã 2 1 0 1 +2 3
49 Arouca 1 1 0 0 +2 3
50 Sp Lisbon 1 1 0 0 +2 3
51 Boavista 1 1 0 0 +2 3
52 Salgueiros 2 1 0 1 +1 3
53 Quarteirense SAD 2 1 0 1 +1 3
54 Portimonense 2 1 0 1 +0 3
55 Tocha 2 1 0 1 +0 3
56 Sandinenses 2 1 0 1 +0 3
57 Feirense 2 1 0 1 +0 3
58 1º Dezembro 2 1 0 1 +0 3
59 Estrela 2 1 0 1 +0 3
60 Pevidem 2 1 0 1 +0 3
61 CF Os Belenenses 2 1 0 1 +0 3
62 AVS 2 1 0 1 +0 3
63 Louletano 2 1 0 1 +0 3
64 Alqueidão da Serra 2 1 0 1 -1 3
65 Academico Viseu 2 1 0 1 -1 3
66 Rabo Peixe 2 1 0 1 -1 3
67 Fabril Barreiro 2 1 0 1 -1 3
68 Ribeirão 2 1 0 1 -1 3
69 Mirandela 2 1 0 1 -2 3
70 Florgrade 2 1 0 1 -2 3
71 Mortágua 2 1 0 1 -2 3
72 Camacha 2 1 0 1 -2 3
73 Lusitânia 2 1 0 1 -2 3
74 Santa Maria FC 2 1 0 1 -2 3
75 Castrense 2 1 0 1 -2 3
76 União Micaelense 2 1 0 1 -3 3
77 Fontinhas 2 1 0 1 -3 3
78 Pombal 2 1 0 1 -3 3
79 Atlético Malveira 2 0 2 0 +0 2
80 Peniche 2 0 2 0 +0 2
81 Atlético Arcos 1 0 1 0 +0 1
82 Anadia 1 0 1 0 +0 1
83 Varzim 1 0 1 0 +0 1
84 União Lamas 1 0 1 0 +0 1
85 Caldas 1 0 1 0 +0 1
86 Marinhense 1 0 1 0 +0 1
87 Chaves 1 0 1 0 +0 1
88 Gondomar 1 0 1 0 +0 1
89 Sanjoanense 2 0 1 1 -1 1
90 Atlético CP 2 0 1 1 -1 1
91 Oliveirense 2 0 1 1 -2 1
92 Portosantense 2 0 1 1 -2 1
93 SC Covilha 2 0 1 1 -3 1
94 Os Limianos 2 0 1 1 -4 1
95 Farense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
96 CF Oliveira Douro 1 0 0 1 -1 0
97 CD Torres Novas 1 0 0 1 -1 0
98 Rio Ave 1 0 0 1 -1 0
99 Lobão 1 0 0 1 -1 0
100 Fafe 1 0 0 1 -1 0
101 União de Tomar 1 0 0 1 -1 0
102 Gouveia 1 0 0 1 -1 0
103 Moreirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
104 Real 1 0 0 1 -1 0
105 Padernense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
106 Os Marialvas 1 0 0 1 -1 0
107 Oriental Lisboa 1 0 0 1 -1 0
108 São João Ver 1 0 0 1 -1 0
109 Pacos Ferreira 1 0 0 1 -1 0
110 Penedo Gordo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
111 Trofense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
112 Guadalupe 1 0 0 1 -1 0
113 Imortal Albufeira 1 0 0 1 -1 0
114 Alcochetense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
115 Lanheses 1 0 0 1 -1 0
116 Rebordelo 1 0 0 1 -2 0
117 Recreativa de Lamelas 1 0 0 1 -2 0
118 Beira-Mar 1 0 0 1 -2 0
119 Aliados Lordelo 1 0 0 1 -2 0
120 Foz 1 0 0 1 -2 0
121 Sertanense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
122 Lusitano FCV 1 0 0 1 -2 0
123 Operário 1 0 0 1 -2 0
124 Comércio Indústria 1 0 0 1 -2 0
125 Atlético Reguengos 1 0 0 1 -2 0
126 Brito 1 0 0 1 -2 0
127 Mondinense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
128 Flamengos 1 0 0 1 -2 0
129 Vila Real 1 0 0 1 -2 0
130 Os Vilanovenses 1 0 0 1 -2 0
131 União de Coimbra 1 0 0 1 -3 0
132 Portel 1 0 0 1 -3 0
133 FC Barreirense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
134 Vitória de Sernache 1 0 0 1 -3 0
135 Luzense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
136 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 1 0 0 1 -4 0
137 Torre de Moncorvo 1 0 0 1 -4 0
138 AD Fornos Algodres 1 0 0 1 -5 0
139 Ponte 1 0 0 1 -5 0
140 Gafetense 1 0 0 1 -5 0
141 Proença-a-Nova 1 0 0 1 -6 0
142 Amiense 1 0 0 1 -7 0
143 Vitória do Pico 1 0 0 1 -8 0
144 Régua 1 0 0 1 -10 0
145 Pedrógão São Pedro 1 0 0 1 -12 0
146 Gavionenses 1 0 0 1 -13 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Guimaraes Vilaverdense
1–0 Tomás Ribeiro
35′
2–0 André Silva
44′
Half-time 2–0
M. Tounkara 🔁
↦ Tomás Ribeiro
46′
3–0 Miguel Maga
47′
60′
🔁 Gonçalo Teixeira
↦ M. Sako
60′
🔁 Lénio Neves
↦ André Soares
Tiago Silva 🔁
↦ Tomás Händel
66′
Zé Carlos 🔁
↦ Dani Silva
66′
Nuno Santos 🔁
↦ Jota Silva
66′
67′
🔁 Bruno Silva
↦ Boubacar Hanne
76′
Gonçalo Teixeira 3–1
4–1 Tiago Silva
81′
Nelson da Luz 🔁
↦ João Mendes
84′
84′
🔁 Ansu Fati
↦ João Caiado
84′
🔁 Ericson
↦ Harramiz
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Guimaraes

3-4-2-1
27 Charles G
44 Jorge Fernandes D
24 T. Borevković D
4 Tomás Ribeiro D
2 Miguel Maga M
80 Dani Silva M
8 Tomás Händel M
19 Ricardo Mangas M
11 Jota Silva F
17 João Mendes M
7 André Silva F
Bench (9)
29 M. Tounkara
10 Tiago Silva
28 Zé Carlos
77 Nuno Santos
20 Nelson da Luz
22 Adrián Butzke
52 Alberto Baio
72 Afonso de Freitas
14 Bruno Varela

Coach: Álvaro Pacheco

Vilaverdense

4-2-3-1
93 Rogério Santos G
27 Carlos Freitas D
26 João Batista D
12 E. Maviram D
33 Gustavo França D
5 M. Sako M
8 João Caiado M
20 Yannick Semedo
10 André Soares M
70 Boubacar Hanne M
21 Harramiz F
Bench (9)
7 Gonçalo Teixeira
88 Lénio Neves
11 Bruno Silva
17 Ansu Fati
23 Ericson
4 R. Kawale
6 B. Konaté
19 Armando Lopes
82 Cajó

Coach: Sérgio Machado

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

José Bessa · 31 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.