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Championship

Referee: J Busby

Bristol City

S T T S U

3–2

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,3

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 41%

38%

44%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

31%

50%

Both score Ø 47%

44%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,9

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,00 xG 0,60

43% Possession 57%

10 Shots 12

8 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 8

1 Offside 4

8 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 11. · Middlesbrough 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	16	13	0	3	+19	+12.0	39
2	Ipswich	16	12	3	1	+15	+10.5	39
3	Leeds	16	8	5	3	+10	+11.3	29
4	Preston	16	8	4	4	-1	-3.5	28
5	Southampton	15	8	3	4	+0	+4.4	27
6	Sunderland	16	8	2	6	+10	+8.4	26
7	West Brom	15	7	5	3	+10	+1.4	26
8	Hull	16	7	5	4	+3	+0.7	26
9	Cardiff	16	7	3	6	+6	-1.9	24
10	Middlesbrough	16	7	3	6	+0	+10.6	24
11	Bristol City	16	6	4	6	+0	-0.2	22
12	Blackburn	16	7	1	8	-2	+1.3	22
13	Watford	16	5	6	5	+5	+4.7	21
14	Stoke	16	6	3	7	-2	-2.1	21
15	Millwall	16	5	5	6	+0	-6.1	20
16	Norwich	15	6	2	7	-2	-1.2	20
17	Swansea	16	5	4	7	+1	-4.6	19
18	Birmingham	16	5	4	7	-3	-1.6	19
19	Plymouth	16	4	4	8	+0	-7.2	16
20	Coventry	16	3	7	6	-2	+5.5	16
21	Huddersfield	16	3	6	7	-14	-7.0	15
22	Rotherham	17	2	6	9	-17	-18.5	12
23	QPR	16	2	4	10	-16	-11.1	10
24	Sheffield Weds	16	1	3	12	-20	-5.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	8	7	0	1	+10	+9.6	21
2	Leeds	8	5	3	0	+9	+8.6	18
3	Leicester	8	6	0	2	+7	+4.5	18
4	West Brom	8	5	2	1	+7	+3.2	17
5	Preston	8	5	2	1	+1	-1.8	17
6	Cardiff	8	5	1	2	+6	+0.1	16
7	Watford	9	4	3	2	+10	+7.1	15
8	Sunderland	8	5	0	3	+6	+4.1	15
9	Birmingham	8	4	3	1	+5	+2.4	15
10	Plymouth	8	4	1	3	+7	-3.1	13
11	Hull	8	3	4	1	+3	+2.0	13
12	Stoke	8	4	1	3	+1	-1.3	13
13	Middlesbrough	8	4	1	3	+0	+5.0	13
14	Norwich	7	4	0	3	+1	+1.8	12
15	Coventry	8	2	5	1	+2	+4.3	11
16	Southampton	7	3	2	2	+1	+4.5	11
17	Rotherham	9	2	5	2	+1	-5.8	11
18	Bristol City	8	3	2	3	+1	+0.7	11
19	Swansea	8	2	3	3	+0	-1.2	9
20	Blackburn	8	3	0	5	-5	+2.1	9
21	Huddersfield	8	2	3	3	-6	-3.0	9
22	Millwall	8	2	1	5	-5	-2.3	7
23	Sheffield Weds	8	1	2	5	-8	-0.2	5
24	QPR	7	0	2	5	-10	-4.0	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	8	7	0	1	+12	+7.5	21
2	Ipswich	8	5	3	0	+5	+0.9	18
3	Southampton	8	5	1	2	-1	-0.1	16
4	Millwall	8	3	4	1	+5	-3.8	13
5	Blackburn	8	4	1	3	+3	-0.8	13
6	Hull	8	4	1	3	+0	-1.3	13
7	Sunderland	8	3	2	3	+4	+4.3	11
8	Leeds	8	3	2	3	+1	+2.7	11
9	Middlesbrough	8	3	2	3	+0	+5.6	11
10	Bristol City	8	3	2	3	-1	-0.9	11
11	Preston	8	3	2	3	-2	-1.7	11
12	Swansea	8	3	1	4	+1	-3.4	10
13	West Brom	7	2	3	2	+3	-1.8	9
14	Cardiff	8	2	2	4	+0	-2.0	8
15	Norwich	8	2	2	4	-3	-3.0	8
16	Stoke	8	2	2	4	-3	-0.8	8
17	QPR	9	2	2	5	-6	-7.1	8
18	Watford	7	1	3	3	-5	-2.4	6
19	Huddersfield	8	1	3	4	-8	-4.0	6
20	Coventry	8	1	2	5	-4	+1.2	5
21	Birmingham	8	1	1	6	-8	-4.0	4
22	Plymouth	8	0	3	5	-7	-4.1	3
23	Sheffield Weds	8	0	1	7	-12	-5.6	1
24	Rotherham	8	0	1	7	-18	-12.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.