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Premier League

Referee: T Robinson

Brentford

T S S S T

0–1

Full-time

Arsenal

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,7

2,2

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 54%

58%

50%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,6

2,2

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,19 xG 1,65

36% Possession 64%

9 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 8

2 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 11. · Arsenal 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	13	9	2	2	+20	+14.5	29
2	Liverpool	13	8	4	1	+17	+11.5	28
3	Arsenal	12	8	3	1	+16	+12.1	27
4	Tottenham	12	8	2	2	+9	+0.3	26
5	Aston Villa	12	8	1	3	+12	+8.1	25
6	Newcastle	13	7	2	4	+17	+12.0	23
7	Brighton	13	6	4	3	+5	+3.1	22
8	Man United	12	7	0	5	-3	-1.4	21
9	West Ham	13	6	2	5	+0	-5.1	20
10	Chelsea	13	4	4	5	+2	+8.6	16
11	Brentford	12	4	4	4	+2	+6.3	16
12	Wolves	12	4	3	5	-4	-2.8	15
13	Crystal Palace	13	4	3	6	-5	-2.0	15
14	Everton	12	4	2	6	-3	+2.1	14
15	Nott'm Forest	13	3	4	6	-5	-5.0	13
16	Fulham	12	3	3	6	-10	-10.0	12
17	Bournemouth	13	3	3	7	-14	-8.2	12
18	Luton	13	2	3	8	-11	-12.8	9
19	Sheffield United	13	1	2	10	-23	-19.0	5
20	Burnley	13	1	1	11	-22	-12.4	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	6	6	0	0	+18	+9.0	18
2	Liverpool	6	6	0	0	+15	+10.4	18
3	Newcastle	7	6	0	1	+14	+9.7	18
4	Arsenal	7	5	2	0	+11	+8.5	17
5	Man City	6	5	1	0	+13	+3.7	16
6	Brighton	7	3	3	1	+5	+2.7	12
7	Tottenham	5	4	0	1	+3	-0.7	12
8	Man United	7	4	0	3	-2	+0.3	12
9	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+2	-3.2	10
10	Brentford	6	2	3	1	+2	+3.0	9
11	Nott'm Forest	6	2	3	1	+2	+0.7	9
12	Wolves	6	2	2	2	-3	-2.2	8
13	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	-4	-4.1	8
14	Chelsea	7	1	3	3	-1	+4.0	6
15	Fulham	5	2	0	3	-3	-2.3	6
16	Crystal Palace	6	1	2	3	-2	-0.5	5
17	Luton	6	1	2	3	-2	-1.7	5
18	Everton	6	1	1	4	-1	+4.8	4
19	Sheffield United	7	1	1	5	-12	-10.7	4
20	Burnley	7	0	0	7	-15	-5.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+6	+1.0	14
2	Man City	7	4	1	2	+7	+10.8	13
3	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+5	+3.6	10
4	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+3	+4.6	10
5	Liverpool	7	2	4	1	+2	+1.1	10
6	Brighton	6	3	1	2	+0	+0.4	10
7	West Ham	7	3	1	3	-2	-1.9	10
8	Everton	6	3	1	2	-2	-2.7	10
9	Crystal Palace	7	3	1	3	-3	-1.5	10
10	Man United	5	3	0	2	-1	-1.8	9
11	Brentford	6	2	1	3	+0	+3.4	7
12	Wolves	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.6	7
13	Aston Villa	6	2	1	3	-6	-1.0	7
14	Fulham	7	1	3	3	-7	-7.8	6
15	Newcastle	6	1	2	3	+3	+2.3	5
16	Nott'm Forest	7	1	1	5	-7	-5.7	4
17	Burnley	6	1	1	4	-7	-6.9	4
18	Luton	7	1	1	5	-9	-11.1	4
19	Bournemouth	6	1	1	4	-10	-4.1	4
20	Sheffield United	6	0	1	5	-11	-8.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.