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La Liga
Referee: Ricardo De Burgos
Leganes
U S T T T
0–1
Full-time
Ath Madrid
S T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leganes Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 34%
17%
50%
Average goals
1,7
2,7
Scored
0,7
1,3
Conceded
1,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,0
This season — La Liga · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 0%
0%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
1,0
1,0
Scored
0,0
1,0
Conceded
1,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

41% Possession 59%
10 Shots 6
4 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 5
9 Corners 4
3 Offside 4
12 Free kicks against 13
4 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Leganes 20. · Ath Madrid 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sevilla 2 2 0 0 +3 6
2 Real Madrid 2 1 1 0 +2 4
3 Valladolid 2 1 1 0 +1 4
4 Ath Bilbao 2 1 1 0 +1 4
5 Sociedad 2 1 1 0 +1 4
6 Osasuna 2 1 1 0 +1 4
7 Alaves 2 1 1 0 +1 4
8 Ath Madrid 1 1 0 0 +1 3
9 Mallorca 2 1 0 1 +0 3
10 Levante 2 1 0 1 +0 3
11 Celta 2 1 0 1 -1 3
12 Villarreal 2 0 1 1 -1 1
13 Granada 2 0 1 1 -1 1
14 Valencia 2 0 1 1 -1 1
15 Eibar 2 0 1 1 -1 1
16 Getafe 2 0 1 1 -1 1
17 Espanol 2 0 1 1 -2 1
18 Betis 1 0 0 1 -1 0
19 Barcelona 1 0 0 1 -1 0
20 Leganes 1 0 0 1 -1 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Leganes Ath Madrid
Javier Eraso 🟨
23′
Bustinza 🔁
↦ Rodri Tarín
28′
Roberto Rosales 🟨
34′
Half-time 0–0
52′
🟨 Mario Hermoso
60′
🔁 Vitolo
↦ Hermoso
62′
🟨 Thomas Partey
70′
🔁 Llorente
↦ T. Partey
71′
Vitolo 0–1
João Félix
Jonathan Silva 🟨
73′
José Arnáiz 🔁
↦ K. Omeruo
77′
Javier Avilés 🔁
↦ Eraso
78′
80′
🟨 Marcos Llorente
86′
🟨 Vitolo
89′
🔁 Felipe
↦ T. Lemar
Youssef En-Nesyri 🟨
90′
90′
🟨 Koke
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Leganes

5-3-2
13 Juan Soriano G
16 Roberto Rosales D
15 Rodrigo Tarin D
4 Kenneth Omeruo D
22 Dimitrios Siovas D
5 Jonathan Silva D
17 Javier Eraso M
21 Rubén Pérez M
6 Roque Mesa M
7 Martin Braithwaite F
26 Youssef En-Nesyri F
Bench (7)
30 André Felipe Grandi
3 Unai Bustinza
2 Marc Navarro
8 Recio
9 Sabin Merino
33 Javier Avilés
10 José Manuel Arnáiz

Coach: M. Pellegrino

Ath Madrid

3-1-4-2
13 Jan Oblak G
15 Stefan Savić D
2 José Giménez D
22 Mario Hermoso D
5 Thomas Partey M
23 Kieran Trippier M
6 Koke M
11 Thomas Lemar M
8 Saúl Ñíguez M
9 Álvaro Morata F
7 João Félix F
Bench (7)
1 Antonio Adán
18 Felipe
4 Santiago Arias
14 Marcos Llorente
16 Héctor Herrera
20 Vitolo
17 Ivan Šaponjić

Coach: D. Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
5,18
U
3,29
B ✓
1,81
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,54
U2,5 ✓
1,52
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Ricardo De Burgos · 119 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.