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DFB-Pokal
Referee: M Petersen
Elversberg
S T U T
0–1
Full-time
Mainz
T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Elversberg Mainz
Last 6 — all competitions · 4/6 matches
Win Ø 21%
25%
17%
Points per game
1,0
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 88%
75%
100%
Both score Ø 71%
75%
67%
Average goals
3,8
4,0
Scored
1,8
1,3
Conceded
2,0
2,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

45% Possession 55%
5 Shots 27
2 Shots on target 8
0 Blocked shots 10
8 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 4
1 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Nurnberg 1 1 0 0 +8 3
2 Leverkusen 1 1 0 0 +8 3
3 M'gladbach 1 1 0 0 +7 3
4 Dortmund 1 1 0 0 +5 3
5 Hertha 1 1 0 0 +5 3
6 St Pauli 1 1 0 0 +5 3
7 Stuttgart 1 1 0 0 +4 3
8 Schalke 04 1 1 0 0 +2 3
9 Holstein Kiel 1 1 0 0 +2 3
10 FC Viktoria Koln 1 1 0 0 +1 3
11 FC Saarbrücken 1 1 0 0 +1 3
12 Sandhausen 1 0 1 0 +0 1
13 Hannover 1 0 1 0 +0 1
14 Werder Bremen 1 0 0 1 -1 0
15 Karlsruhe 1 0 0 1 -1 0
16 Braunschweig 1 0 0 1 -2 0
17 FC Gutersloh 1 0 0 1 -2 0
18 Balingen 1 0 0 1 -4 0
19 Schott Mainz 1 0 0 1 -5 0
20 Carl Zeiss Jena 1 0 0 1 -5 0
21 Atlas Delmenhorst 1 0 0 1 -5 0
22 Bersenbrück 1 0 0 1 -7 0
23 Oberneuland 1 0 0 1 -8 0
24 Teutonia Ottensen 1 0 0 1 -8 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Elversberg Mainz
L. Pinckert 🔁
↦ Marcel Correia
13′
Half-time 0–0
P. Stock 🔁
↦ W. Faghir
58′
A. Sicker 🔁
↦ K. Conrad
64′
Manuel Feil 🟨
70′
73′
L. Ajorque 0–1
Maurice Neubauer 🟨
80′
80′
🔁 S. van den Berg
↦ A. Caci
80′
🔁 T. Krauß
↦ Lee Jae-Sung
Manuel Feil 🟨
83′
Manuel Feil 🟥
83′
91′
🔁 N. Weiper
↦ L. Ajorque
92′
🟨 Stefan Bell
95′
🔁 M. Papela
↦ L. Barreiro
96′
🟨 Sepp van den Berg
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Elversberg

3-4-2-1
20 N. Kristof G
4 K. Conrad D
23 C. Sickinger D
13 Marcel Correia D
7 M. Feil M
31 T. Jacobsen M
8 S. Şahin M
33 M. Neubauer M
24 L. Schnellbacher F
10 J. Rochelt F
29 W. Faghir F
Bench (9)
19 L. Pinckert
21 P. Stock
26 A. Sicker
30 K. Koffi
35 N. Antonitsch
22 J. Boyamba
28 T. Boss
14 R. Fellhauer
11 L. Dürholtz

Coach: H. Steffen

Mainz

3-4-2-1
27 R. Zentner G
16 S. Bell D
31 D. Kohr D
20 E. Fernandes D
21 D. da Costa M
8 L. Barreiro M
6 A. Stach M
19 A. Caci M
7 Lee Jae-Sung F
9 K. Onisiwo F
17 L. Ajorque F
Bench (9)
3 S. van den Berg
14 T. Krauß
24 M. Papela
44 N. Weiper
43 B. Gruda
4 A. Barkok
45 D. Mamutovic
1 L. Rieß
33 D. Batz

Coach: B. Svensson

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

M Petersen · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.