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Serie A
Referee: G Rocchi
Roma
S U U S S
2–1
Full-time
Napoli
S U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Napoli
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,0
Scored
1,3
1,2
Conceded
0,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,3
This season — Serie A · 10/10 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,9
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 60%
60%
60%
Average goals
2,9
3,3
Scored
1,8
2,0
Conceded
1,1
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%
13 Shots 12
7 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
10 Corners 4
4 Offside 2
23 Free kicks against 14
5 Yellow cards 3
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Roma 4. · Napoli 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 10 8 2 0 +9 26
2 Inter 10 8 1 1 +12 25
3 Atalanta 10 6 3 1 +14 21
4 Roma 10 5 4 1 +7 19
5 Lazio 10 5 3 2 +12 18
6 Napoli 10 5 3 2 +7 18
7 Cagliari 10 5 3 2 +6 18
8 Fiorentina 10 4 3 3 +2 15
9 Parma 10 4 1 5 +1 13
10 Milan 10 4 1 5 -3 13
11 Bologna 10 3 3 4 -1 12
12 Verona 10 3 3 4 -1 12
13 Torino 10 3 2 5 -5 11
14 Udinese 10 3 1 6 -12 10
15 Sassuolo 9 3 0 6 -2 9
16 Lecce 10 2 3 5 -8 9
17 Genoa 10 2 2 6 -10 8
18 Brescia 9 2 1 6 -5 7
19 Spal 10 2 1 7 -10 7
20 Sampdoria 10 1 2 7 -13 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Roma Napoli
1–0 Nicolò Zaniolo
Leonardo Spinazzola
19′
Aleksandar Kolarov
penalty missed
26′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 Jordan Veretout
55′
58′
🔁 Hirving Lozano
↦ José Callejón
65′
🔁 Fernando Llorente
↦ Dries Mertens
72′
Arkadiusz Milik 2–1
Hirving Lozano
Justin Kluivert 🟨
76′
76′
🟨 Giovanni Di Lorenzo
Diego Perotti 🔁
↦ Justin Kluivert
77′
78′
🟨 Mário Rui
Cengiz Ünder 🔁
↦ Nicolò Zaniolo
81′
83′
🔁 Amin Younes
↦ Lorenzo Insigne
Leonardo Spinazzola 🟨
86′
87′
🟨 Arkadiusz Milik
Davide Santon 🔁
↦ Javier Pastore
89′
Yıldırım Mert Çetin 🟨
90′
Cengiz Ünder 🟨
90′
Yıldırım Mert Çetin 🟨
90′
Yıldırım Mert Çetin 🟥
90′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Roma

4-2-3-1
13 Pau López G
37 Leonardo Spinazzola D
15 Yıldırım Mert Çetin D
6 Chris Smalling D
11 Aleksandar Kolarov D
23 Gianluca Mancini M
21 Jordan Veretout M
22 Nicolò Zaniolo M
27 Javier Pastore M
99 Justin Kluivert M
9 Edin Džeko F
Bench (8)
83 Antonio Mirante
63 Daniel Fuzato
18 Davide Santon
5 Juan Jesus
24 Alessandro Florenzi
17 Cengiz Ünder
48 Mirko Antonucci
8 Diego Perotti

Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Napoli

4-4-2
1 Alex Meret G
22 Giovanni Di Lorenzo D
44 Konstantinos Manolas D
26 Kalidou Koulibaly D
6 Mário Rui D
7 José Callejón M
8 Fabián Ruiz M
20 Piotr Zieliński M
24 Lorenzo Insigne M
99 Arkadiusz Milik F
14 Dries Mertens F
Bench (11)
27 Orestis Karnezis
25 David Ospina
23 Elseid Hysaj
19 Nikola Maksimović
13 Sebastiano Luperto
62 Lorenzo Tonelli
70 Gianluca Gaetano
12 Eljif Elmas
9 Fernando Llorente
34 Amin Younes
11 Hirving Lozano

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,69
U
3,58
B
2,52
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,62
U2,5
2,29
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

G Rocchi · 16 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
6,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
30,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,38 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.