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Europa League
Referee: José Sánchez
Brighton
S S T S U
1–0
Full-time
Marseille
U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,0
3,5
Scored
1,7
2,3
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 60%
60%
60%
Points per game
2,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
40%
80%
Both score Ø 60%
40%
80%
Average goals
2,8
4,6
Scored
1,8
2,8
Conceded
1,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,16 xG 0,38
61% Possession 39%
13 Shots 5
5 Shots on target 0
4 Blocked shots 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
0 Corners 2
1 Offside 5
15 Free kicks against 14
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

5. Oct -23 Marseille – Brighton 2–2

Match report

Brighton Marseille
Half-time 0–0
52′
🔁 I. Ndiaye
↦ Vítinha
55′
🔁 A. Murillo
↦ Renan Lodi
E. Ferguson 🔁
↦ S. Adingra
64′
J. Milner 🔁
↦ J. Hinshelwood
74′
A. Lallana 🔁
↦ F. Buonanotte
74′
75′
🟨 Chancel Mbemba
78′
🔁 I. Sarr
↦ A. Harit
78′
🔁 G. Kondogbia
↦ J. Veretout
Adam Lallana 🟨
79′
79′
🟨 Azzedine Ounahi
Kaoru Mitoma 🟨
84′
1–0 João Pedro ⚽
P. Groß
88′
João Pedro 🟨
89′
J. Veltman 🔁
↦ João Pedro
90′
C. Baleba 🔁
↦ B. Gilmour
90′
Jason Steele 🟨
94′
94′
🟨 Ismaïla Sarr
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Brighton

4-2-3-1
23 J. Steele G
41 J. Hinshelwood D
29 J. van Hecke D
5 L. Dunk D
3 Igor Julio D
11 B. Gilmour M
13 P. Groß M
24 S. Adingra M
40 F. Buonanotte M
22 K. Mitoma M
9 João Pedro F
Bench (12)
28 E. Ferguson
6 J. Milner
14 A. Lallana
34 J. Veltman
20 C. Baleba
45 J. Hinchy
48 S. Chouchane
52 L. Kavanagh
8 Mahmoud Dahoud
1 B. Verbruggen
38 T. McGill
56 J. Duffus

Coach: R. De Zerbi

Marseille

3-4-3
16 Pau López G
18 B. Meïté D
99 C. Mbemba D
5 L. Balerdi D
7 J. Clauss M
27 J. Veretout M
8 A. Ounahi M
12 Renan Lodi M
9 Vítinha F
10 P. Aubameyang F
11 A. Harit F
Bench (10)
29 I. Ndiaye
62 A. Murillo
23 I. Sarr
19 G. Kondogbia
24 F. Mughe
1 S. Ngapandouetnbu
34 B. Nadir
37 E. Soglo
4 S. Gigot
36 Rubén Blanco

Coach: G. Gattuso

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

José Sánchez · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.