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Europa League
Referee: Harm Osmers
Porto
S S S S S
2–1
Full-time
FK Crvena Zvezda
S U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto FK Crvena Zvezda
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
100%
33%
Points per game
3,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
17%
100%
Average goals
2,7
3,2
Scored
2,5
2,0
Conceded
0,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+2,3
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
100%
0%
Points per game
3,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 0%
0%
0%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
1,0
2,0
Scored
1,0
1,0
Conceded
0,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,65 xG 0,53
50% Possession 50%
18 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 8
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Porto FK Crvena Zvezda
7′
🟨 Franklin Tebo
1–0 William Gomes ⚽
8′
Rodrigo Mora 🟨
32′
32′
⚽ V. Kostov 1–1
M. Veljkovic
Half-time 1–1
V. Froholdt 🔁
↦ J. Bednarek
46′
A. Costa 🔁
↦ M. Fernandes
46′
Dominik Prpić 🟨
47′
Pepê 🔁
↦ William Gomes
61′
B. Sainz 🔁
↦ A. Alarcon
61′
68′
🟨 Nair Tiknizyan
69′
🔁 Milson
↦ N. Radonjic
G. Veiga 🔁
↦ D. Gul
73′
81′
🔁 P. Olayinka
↦ V. Kostov
81′
🔁 Bruno Duarte
↦ M. Arnautovic
81′
🔁 N. Stankovic
↦ N. Tiknizyan
Alberto Costa 🟨
87′
2–1 R. Mora ⚽
Pepe
89′
92′
🔁 M. Bajo
↦ T. Elsnik
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Porto

4-3-3
99 D. Costa G
52 M. Fernandes D
5 J. Bednarek D
21 D. Prpic D
12 Zaidu D
6 S. Eustaquio M
13 P. Rosario M
86 R. Mora M
7 William Gomes F
27 D. Gul F
47 A. Alarcon F
Bench (12)
14 Claudio Ramos
24 J. Costa
4 J. Kiwior
8 V. Froholdt
9 Samu
10 G. Veiga
11 Pepê
17 B. Sainz
20 A. Costa
22 A. Varela
73 G. Bras
74 F. Moura

Coach: Francesco Farioli

FK Crvena Zvezda

4-2-3-1
1 Matheus G
66 Seol Young-Woo D
30 F. Tebo Uchenna D
13 M. Veljkovic D
23 N. Tiknizyan D
21 T. Elsnik M
20 T. Handel M
49 N. Radonjic M
22 V. Kostov M
4 M. Ivanic M
89 M. Arnautovic F
Bench (12)
18 O. Glazer
77 I. Gutesa
5 Rodrigo
6 M. Bajo
7 Milson
14 P. Olayinka
17 Bruno Duarte
24 N. Stankovic
25 S. Lekovic
37 V. Lucic
40 L. Zaric
71 A. Avdic

Coach: Vladan Milojević

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Harm Osmers · 60 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.