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Serie B
Referee: M Gualtieri
Modena
S S T T
4–1
Full-time
Ternana
S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Modena Ternana
Last 6 — all competitions · 4/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 71%
75%
67%
Both score Ø 71%
75%
67%
Average goals
3,3
3,0
Scored
1,8
1,3
Conceded
1,5
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,3
This season — Serie B · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,0
Scored
0,5
1,0
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

53% Possession 47%
15 Shots 5
5 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 2
3 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 9
3 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Modena 19. · Ternana 10.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Frosinone 2 2 0 0 +4 6
2 Cosenza 2 2 0 0 +2 6
3 Palermo 2 1 1 0 +2 4
4 Cagliari 2 1 1 0 +1 4
5 Ascoli 2 1 1 0 +1 4
6 Genoa 2 1 1 0 +1 4
7 Reggina 2 1 0 1 +1 3
8 Cittadella 2 1 0 1 +0 3
9 Venezia 2 1 0 1 +0 3
10 Ternana 2 1 0 1 +0 3
11 Brescia 2 1 0 1 -1 3
12 Bari 2 0 2 0 +0 2
13 Como 2 0 2 0 +0 2
14 Parma 2 0 2 0 +0 2
15 Pisa 2 0 1 1 -1 1
16 Benevento 2 0 1 1 -1 1
17 Spal 2 0 1 1 -2 1
18 Perugia 2 0 1 1 -2 1
19 Modena 2 0 0 2 -2 0
20 Sudtirol 2 0 0 2 -3 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Modena Ternana
Giorgio Cittadini 🟨
7′
1–0 D. Diaw
23′
1–1 M. Capuano
own goal
32′
Half-time 1–1
Sebastien De Maio 🟨
46′
46′
🔁 M. Defendi
↦ L. Ghiringhelli
50′
A. Favilli 1–2
A. Palumbo
58′
ℹ️ Andrea Favilli
VAR: Goal cancelled
D. Falcinelli 🔁
↦ N. Bonfanti
60′
60′
🔁 Raul Moro
↦ C. Falletti
2–2 D. Falcinelli
S. Oukhadda
64′
Diego Falcinelli 🟨
65′
3–2 L. Tremolada
68′
74′
🔁 N. Corrado
↦ A. Palumbo
83′
🔁 F. Sørensen
↦ A. Celli
84′
🔁 S. Spalluto
↦ A. Favilli
T. Silvestri 🔁
↦ L. Tremolada
85′
T. Battistella 🔁
↦ M. Gargiulo
86′
F. Renzetti 🔁
↦ F. Ponsi
88′
R. Giovannini 🔁
↦ D. Diaw
88′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Modena

4-3-1-2
26 R. Gagno G
96 S. Oukhadda D
28 S. De Maio D
5 G. Cittadini D
3 F. Ponsi D
21 M. Armellino M
16 F. Gerli M
20 M. Gargiulo M
10 L. Tremolada M
9 N. Bonfanti F
99 D. Diaw F
Bench (12)
11 D. Falcinelli
15 T. Silvestri
23 T. Battistella
33 F. Renzetti
19 R. Giovannini
43 S. Panada
77 M. Piacentini
1 A. Narciso
8 N. Mosti
6 L. Magnino
7 E. Duca
70 F. Abiuso

Coach: A. Tesser

Ternana

4-3-2-1
1 A. Iannarilli G
24 L. Ghiringhelli D
26 L. Bogdan D
19 M. Capuano D
30 A. Celli D
34 D. Agazzi M
14 F. Di Tacchio M
10 C. Falletti M
21 A. Partipilo M
5 A. Palumbo M
17 A. Favilli F
Bench (12)
25 M. Defendi
18 Raul Moro
91 N. Corrado
4 F. Sørensen
11 S. Spalluto
8 M. Proietti
33 T. Vitali
20 F. Paghera
6 F. Mazzarani
7 G. Capanni
16 P. Rovaglia
12 T. Krapikas

Coach: C. Lucarelli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,22
U
3,28
B
3,23
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,01
U2,5
1,79
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Gualtieri · 26 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,35 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.