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Premier League
Referee: P Tierney
Chelsea
U S S U T
2–1
Full-time
Leicester
S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Leicester
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,7
3,3
Scored
1,5
1,7
Conceded
1,2
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,0
This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,3
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
67%
100%
Both score Ø 67%
33%
100%
Average goals
2,7
4,3
Scored
1,0
1,7
Conceded
1,7
2,7
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

45% Possession 55%
7 Shots 17
3 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 11
3 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Chelsea 12. · Leicester 19. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Arsenal 3 3 0 0 +7 9
2 Man City 3 2 1 0 +6 7
3 Leeds 3 2 1 0 +4 7
4 Tottenham 3 2 1 0 +4 7
5 Brighton 3 2 1 0 +3 7
6 Man United 4 2 0 2 -3 6
7 Newcastle 3 1 2 0 +2 5
8 Fulham 3 1 2 0 +1 5
9 Brentford 3 1 1 1 +3 4
10 Crystal Palace 3 1 1 1 +0 4
11 Nott'm Forest 3 1 1 1 -1 4
12 Chelsea 3 1 1 1 -2 4
13 Southampton 4 1 1 2 -3 4
14 Aston Villa 3 1 0 2 -3 3
15 Bournemouth 3 1 0 2 -5 3
16 Liverpool 3 0 2 1 -1 2
17 Everton 3 0 1 2 -2 1
18 Wolves 3 0 1 2 -2 1
19 Leicester 3 0 1 2 -3 1
20 West Ham 3 0 0 3 -5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Chelsea Leicester
Ruben Loftus-Cheek ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
13′
Conor Gallagher 🟨
22′
Conor Gallagher 🟨
28′
Conor Gallagher 🟥
28′
31′
🟨 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
40′
🟨 Dennis Praet
Half-time 0–0
César Azpilicueta 🔁
↦ M. Mount
46′
1–0 R. Sterling ⚽
Marc Cucurella
47′
55′
🔁 Ayoze Pérez
↦ D. Praet
55′
🔁 K. Ịheanachọ
↦ B. Soumaré
2–0 R. Sterling ⚽
R. James
63′
66′
⚽ H. Barnes 2–1
J. Vardy
C. Pulišić 🔁
↦ R. Sterling
75′
M. Kovačić 🔁
↦ Jorginho
75′
89′
🔁 W. Ndidi
↦ Y. Tielemans
B. Chilwell 🔁
↦ Marc Cucurella
92′
Kai Havertz 🟨
93′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Chelsea

4-4-2
16 É. Mendy G
24 R. James D
14 T. Chalobah D
6 Thiago Silva D
32 Marc Cucurella D
12 R. Loftus-Cheek M
23 C. Gallagher M
5 Jorginho M
19 M. Mount M
29 K. Havertz F
17 R. Sterling F
Bench (9)
28 César Azpilicueta
10 C. Pulišić
8 M. Kovačić
21 B. Chilwell
44 E. Ampadu
18 A. Broja
1 Kepa
22 H. Ziyech
20 C. Hudson-Odoi

Coach: T. Tuchel

Leicester

4-1-4-1
1 D. Ward G
27 T. Castagne D
18 D. Amartey D
6 J. Evans D
2 J. Justin D
42 B. Soumaré M
26 D. Praet M
8 Y. Tielemans M
22 K. Dewsbury-Hall M
7 H. Barnes M
9 J. Vardy F
Bench (9)
17 Ayoze Pérez
14 K. Ịheanachọ
25 W. Ndidi
4 Ç. Söyüncü
31 D. Iversen
20 P. Daka
11 M. Albrighton
33 L. Thomas
24 N. Mendy

Coach: B. Rodgers

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,42
U
4,93
B
7,52
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
O2,5 ✓
1,64
U2,5
2,28
U3,5 ✓
–
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
BLS nei
–

Referee

P Tierney · 131 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.