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Serie A

Referee: M Fabbri

Monza

U T U U T

0–1

Full-time

Frosinone

U U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Frosinone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 25%

31%

19%

Points per game

1,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

42%

64%

Both score Ø 57%

47%

67%

Average goals

2,4

3,1

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,02 xG 2,06

71% Possession 29%

14 Shots 16

2 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 4

14 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 12. · Frosinone 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	36	29	5	2	+67	+46.1	92
2	Milan	37	22	8	7	+27	+19.3	74
3	Bologna	36	18	13	5	+24	+11.1	67
4	Juventus	36	18	13	5	+21	+26.0	67
5	Atalanta	36	20	6	10	+28	+14.8	66
6	Roma	36	17	9	10	+19	+10.6	60
7	Lazio	36	18	5	13	+10	+5.0	59
8	Fiorentina	36	15	9	12	+13	+4.6	54
9	Torino	37	13	14	10	+3	+2.3	53
10	Napoli	37	13	13	11	+7	+21.9	52
11	Genoa	36	11	13	12	-1	-7.3	46
12	Monza	36	11	12	13	-9	-15.4	45
13	Lecce	37	8	13	16	-22	-9.7	37
14	Cagliari	37	8	12	17	-25	-11.7	36
15	Verona	36	8	10	18	-14	-11.8	34
16	Udinese	36	5	18	13	-17	-9.9	33
17	Frosinone	36	7	11	18	-25	-14.5	32
18	Empoli	36	8	8	20	-26	-18.0	32
19	Sassuolo	37	7	8	22	-32	-21.7	29
20	Salernitana	36	2	10	24	-48	-41.9	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	14	3	1	+33	+27.6	45
2	Bologna	18	12	4	2	+21	+9.1	40
3	Milan	18	12	3	3	+21	+12.0	39
4	Atalanta	17	12	2	3	+24	+15.2	38
5	Roma	18	11	4	3	+18	+12.2	37
6	Juventus	18	10	7	1	+13	+19.3	37
7	Fiorentina	19	10	5	4	+15	+10.4	35
8	Lazio	18	10	3	5	+9	+9.0	33
9	Torino	19	8	9	2	+9	+7.3	33
10	Genoa	18	7	6	5	+3	-2.1	27
11	Frosinone	18	7	4	7	-3	-3.7	25
12	Cagliari	18	6	7	5	-3	+4.9	25
13	Monza	18	6	6	6	-2	-5.3	24
14	Napoli	18	6	6	6	-3	+12.4	24
15	Lecce	19	6	6	7	-10	-1.0	24
16	Verona	18	6	5	7	-3	-4.3	23
17	Sassuolo	19	5	5	9	-11	-10.8	20
18	Empoli	18	4	5	9	-9	-6.5	17
19	Udinese	18	1	10	7	-8	-2.1	13
20	Salernitana	18	1	5	12	-20	-15.8	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	15	2	1	+34	+18.5	47
2	Milan	19	10	5	4	+6	+7.3	35
3	Juventus	18	8	6	4	+8	+6.6	30
4	Napoli	19	7	7	5	+10	+9.6	28
5	Atalanta	19	8	4	7	+4	-0.4	28
6	Bologna	18	6	9	3	+3	+2.0	27
7	Lazio	18	8	2	8	+1	-4.0	26
8	Roma	18	6	5	7	+1	-1.6	23
9	Monza	18	5	6	7	-7	-10.1	21
10	Torino	18	5	5	8	-6	-5.0	20
11	Udinese	18	4	8	6	-9	-7.8	20
12	Fiorentina	17	5	4	8	-2	-5.8	19
13	Genoa	18	4	7	7	-4	-5.2	19
14	Empoli	18	4	3	11	-17	-11.5	15
15	Lecce	18	2	7	9	-12	-8.8	13
16	Verona	18	2	5	11	-11	-7.5	11
17	Cagliari	19	2	5	12	-22	-16.6	11
18	Sassuolo	18	2	3	13	-21	-10.8	9
19	Salernitana	18	1	5	12	-28	-26.1	8
20	Frosinone	18	0	7	11	-22	-10.8	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.