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Eredivisie
Referee: B Nijhuis
AZ Alkmaar
T S S S S
3–3
Full-time
Utrecht
T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Utrecht
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
4,2
3,8
Scored
2,0
2,3
Conceded
2,2
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 33/31 matches
Win Ø 49%
58%
39%
Points per game
1,9
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
67%
39%
Both score Ø 50%
48%
52%
Average goals
3,1
2,8
Scored
2,0
1,4
Conceded
1,1
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

0,65 xG 2,75
37% Possession 63%
7 Shots 21
4 Shots on target 11
0 Blocked shots 5
8 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 14
2 Offside 3
8 Free kicks against 3
2 Yellow cards 0
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 4. · Utrecht 7.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 33 28 4 1 +88 +66.3 88
2 Feyenoord 33 25 6 2 +62 +65.9 81
3 Twente 33 20 6 7 +32 +19.0 66
4 AZ Alkmaar 33 19 7 7 +31 +17.0 64
5 Ajax 33 15 10 8 +13 +10.4 55
6 Nijmegen 32 13 10 9 +14 -14.9 49
7 Utrecht 31 12 10 9 +2 -4.5 46
8 Sparta Rotterdam 32 12 7 13 +1 -8.2 43
9 Go Ahead Eagles 31 11 9 11 +1 -6.6 42
10 Heerenveen 33 10 7 16 -16 -6.1 37
11 For Sittard 33 9 10 14 -19 +2.2 37
12 Zwolle 33 9 9 15 -21 -18.2 36
13 Almere City 33 7 13 13 -23 -16.5 34
14 Heracles 33 9 5 19 -33 -26.1 32
15 Waalwijk 33 7 8 18 -16 -10.9 29
16 Excelsior 33 6 11 16 -19 -11.3 29
17 Vitesse 33 6 5 22 -44 -24.0 23
18 Volendam 33 4 7 22 -53 -33.4 19

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

AZ Alkmaar Utrecht
1–0 M. de Wit
15′
2–0 R. van Bommel
V. Pavlidis
16′
3–0 V. Pavlidis
Y. Sugawara
37′
Vangelis Pavlidis 🟨
38′
Half-time 3–0
Ibrahim Sadiq 🟨
51′
55′
O. Boussaid 3–1
Dani de Wit ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
59′
Dani de Wit 🟥
60′
D. Kasius 🔁
↦ R. van Bommel
64′
D. Møller Wolfe 🔁
↦ M. de Wit
65′
65′
🔁 J. Okkels
↦ M. van der Maarel
71′
S. Lammers 3–2
S. El Karouani
72′
🔁 N. Vesterlund
↦ H. ter Avest
72′
🔁 V. Jensen
↦ O. Boussaid
72′
🔁 M. Azarkan
↦ T. Booth
E. Poku 🔁
↦ V. Pavlidis
77′
B. Martins Indi 🔁
↦ R. Bazoer
77′
Tiago Dantas 🔁
↦ J. Clasie
79′
81′
V. Jensen 3–3
J. Okkels
91′
🔁 O. Fraulo
↦ Zidane Iqbal
Full-time 3–3

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3
1 M. Ryan G
2 Y. Sugawara D
5 Alexandre Penetra D
25 R. Bazoer D
34 M. de Wit D
10 D. de Wit M
8 J. Clasie M
16 S. Mijnans M
11 I. Sadiq F
9 V. Pavlidis F
7 R. van Bommel F
Bench (12)
30 D. Kasius
18 D. Møller Wolfe
21 E. Poku
4 B. Martins Indi
6 Tiago Dantas
44 D. Kwakman
28 L. Zeefuik
20 R. Owusu-Oduro
3 W. Goes
12 H. Verhulst
22 M. Dekker
19 M. van Brederode

Coach: M. Martens

Utrecht

4-2-3-1
1 V. Barkas G
5 H. ter Avest D
34 R. Flamingo D
2 M. van der Maarel D
16 S. El Karouani D
6 C. Bozdoğan M
14 Zidane Iqbal M
10 T. Booth M
18 J. Toornstra M
26 O. Boussaid M
9 S. Lammers F
Bench (12)
17 J. Okkels
23 N. Vesterlund
7 V. Jensen
11 M. Azarkan
8 O. Fraulo
44 J. Mukeh
32 T. Nijhuis
3 M. van der Hoorn
31 M. Branderhorst
45 N. Held
37 I. Lidberg
77 O. Romeny

Coach: R. Jans

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,43
U ✓
4,86
B
6,34
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,49
U2,5
2,55
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

B Nijhuis · 128 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
15,7 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,07 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.