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Ligue 1

Referee: S Frappart

Brest

S T T U T

0–1

Full-time

Ajaccio

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brest Ajaccio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,3

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,3

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-1,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 7%

14%

Points per game

0,7

0,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

57%

43%

Both score Ø 57%

71%

43%

Average goals

3,6

2,0

Scored

1,1

0,4

Conceded

2,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

59% Possession 41%

8 Shots 6

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brest 18. · Ajaccio 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+21	19
2	Marseille	7	6	1	0	+11	19
3	Lorient	8	6	1	1	+5	19
4	Lens	7	5	2	0	+9	17
5	Monaco	8	4	2	2	+1	14
6	Lyon	7	4	1	2	+7	13
7	Lille	8	4	1	3	+0	13
8	Montpellier	8	4	0	4	+4	12
9	Rennes	7	3	2	2	+6	11
10	Clermont	7	3	1	3	-2	10
11	Nice	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Toulouse	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	Troyes	7	2	1	4	-4	7
14	Auxerre	8	2	1	5	-11	7
15	Nantes	7	1	3	3	-3	6
16	Reims	8	1	3	4	-7	6
17	Strasbourg	8	0	5	3	-3	5
18	Brest	7	1	2	4	-9	5
19	Angers	7	1	2	4	-10	5
20	Ajaccio	7	0	1	6	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lyon	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Lens	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Marseille	4	4	0	0	+6	12
4	Rennes	4	3	0	1	+7	9
5	Lorient	3	3	0	0	+4	9
6	Montpellier	5	3	0	2	+1	9
7	Paris SG	3	2	1	0	+4	7
8	Clermont	3	2	0	1	-2	6
9	Lille	4	2	0	2	-3	6
10	Toulouse	4	1	2	1	-2	5
11	Nantes	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Troyes	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Angers	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Auxerre	4	1	1	2	-3	4
15	Monaco	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Strasbourg	4	0	3	1	-1	3
17	Reims	4	0	2	2	-5	2
18	Brest	3	0	2	1	-7	2
19	Nice	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	Ajaccio	4	0	1	3	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	4	0	0	+17	12
2	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Lorient	5	3	1	1	+1	10
4	Marseille	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Lille	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Nice	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Lens	3	1	2	0	+3	5
8	Clermont	4	1	1	2	+0	4
9	Reims	4	1	1	2	-2	4
10	Montpellier	3	1	0	2	+3	3
11	Brest	4	1	0	3	-2	3
12	Toulouse	4	1	0	3	-2	3
13	Troyes	4	1	0	3	-3	3
14	Auxerre	4	1	0	3	-8	3
15	Rennes	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Nantes	4	0	2	2	-2	2
17	Strasbourg	4	0	2	2	-2	2
18	Lyon	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Angers	3	0	1	2	-7	1
20	Ajaccio	3	0	0	3	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.