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Serie B
Referee: M Di Bello
Ternana
T S T U S
1–0
Full-time
Perugia
T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ternana Perugia
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,5
2,5
Scored
1,5
0,8
Conceded
2,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,8
This season — Serie B · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 30%
40%
20%
Points per game
1,4
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
60%
40%
Both score Ø 60%
80%
40%
Average goals
3,2
2,0
Scored
1,4
0,6
Conceded
1,8
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,4
-0,8
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%
14 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 5
0 Offside 1
14 Free kicks against 18
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ternana 13. · Perugia 17.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Reggina 6 5 0 1 +12 15
2 Brescia 6 5 0 1 +4 15
3 Frosinone 6 4 0 2 +5 12
4 Bari 6 3 3 0 +4 12
5 Genoa 6 3 2 1 +2 11
6 Cagliari 6 3 1 2 +2 10
7 Parma 6 2 3 1 +2 9
8 Spal 6 2 3 1 +1 9
9 Cosenza 6 2 2 2 +0 8
10 Ascoli 6 2 2 2 -1 8
11 Cittadella 6 2 2 2 -2 8
12 Benevento 6 2 1 3 -1 7
13 Ternana 5 2 1 2 -2 7
14 Palermo 6 2 1 3 -2 7
15 Sudtirol 6 2 1 3 -4 7
16 Venezia 6 1 2 3 -4 5
17 Perugia 5 1 1 3 -4 4
18 Modena 6 1 0 5 -3 3
19 Como 6 0 3 3 -5 3
20 Pisa 6 0 2 4 -4 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ternana Perugia
Mamadou Coulibaly 🟨
25′
25′
ℹ️ Tiago Casasola
VAR: Penalty confirmed
Half-time 1–0
1–0 A. Partipilo
A. Palumbo
47′
Anthony Partipilo 🟨
51′
57′
🔁 L. Strizzolo
↦ S. Santoro
57′
🔁 A. Beghetto
↦ Y. Paz
F. Cassata 🔁
↦ M. Coulibaly
64′
65′
🔁 F. Melchiorri
↦ S. Di Carmine
70′
🔁 M. Olivieri
↦ A. Rosi
S. Diakité 🔁
↦ N. Corrado
77′
A. Celli 🔁
↦ A. Palumbo
77′
Davide Agazzi 🟨
81′
83′
🟨 Luca Strizzolo
84′
🟨 Tiago Casasola
Raul Moro 🔁
↦ A. Favilli
85′
A. Donnarumma 🔁
↦ A. Partipilo
85′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Ternana

4-3-2-1
1 A. Iannarilli G
13 V. Mantovani D
4 F. Sørensen D
19 M. Capuano D
91 N. Corrado D
2 M. Coulibaly M
14 F. Di Tacchio M
34 D. Agazzi M
21 A. Partipilo M
5 A. Palumbo M
17 A. Favilli F
Bench (12)
29 F. Cassata
23 S. Diakité
30 A. Celli
18 Raul Moro
9 A. Donnarumma
87 B. Martella
16 P. Rovaglia
20 F. Paghera
24 L. Ghiringhelli
25 M. Defendi
8 M. Proietti
12 T. Krapikas

Coach: C. Lucarelli

Perugia

3-5-1-1
1 S. Gori G
97 F. Sgarbi D
15 C. Dell'Orco D
2 A. Rosi D
24 T. Casasola M
13 G. Luperini M
16 P. Bartolomei M
25 S. Santoro M
17 Y. Paz M
28 C. Kouan F
18 S. Di Carmine F
Bench (12)
41 L. Strizzolo
33 A. Beghetto
9 F. Melchiorri
11 M. Olivieri
12 J. Furlan
20 G. Di Serio
7 M. Vulić
4 E. Iannoni
5 G. Angella
22 L. Moro
3 S. Righetti
6 S. Vulikić

Coach: F. Castori

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,47
U
3,21
B
2,85
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,96
U2,5 ✓
1,82
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

M Di Bello · 127 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
26,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.