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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa

AVS

T T U T T

0–3

Full-time

Benfica

S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AVS Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

2,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

75%

Points per game

0,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

60%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

60%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

2,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

-1,4

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,88 xG 2,09

37% Possession 63%

8 Shots 19

1 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 1

0 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AVS 17. · Benfica 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+14	+9.2	18
2	Sp Lisbon	5	4	0	1	+11	+7.7	12
3	Moreirense	5	4	0	1	+4	+2.4	12
4	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+5	+4.5	10
5	Famalicao	5	3	1	1	+4	-1.1	10
6	Gil Vicente	5	3	1	1	+3	+0.4	10
7	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+5	+3.3	8
8	Santa Clara	6	2	2	2	-2	+0.7	8
9	Arouca	6	2	2	2	-5	-6.0	8
10	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.5	7
11	Casa Pia	5	2	0	3	-4	-3.9	6
12	Estoril	5	1	2	2	+0	-2.5	5
13	Alverca	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.5	4
14	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.2	4
15	Estrela	5	0	3	2	-3	-0.8	3
16	Rio Ave	5	0	3	2	-5	-2.1	3
17	AVS	5	0	1	4	-7	-3.2	1
18	Tondela	5	0	1	4	-8	-2.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+8	+6.4	9
2	Moreirense	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.8	9
3	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.2	4
4	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.2	4
5	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+2	-1.4	4
6	Guimaraes	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
7	Estoril	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.9	4
8	Arouca	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.1	4
9	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.1	4
10	Sp Lisbon	2	1	0	1	+5	+2.0	3
11	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
12	Alverca	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.0	3
13	Rio Ave	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.3	2
14	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.7	1
15	Estrela	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.6	1
16	AVS	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
17	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.0	0
18	Nacional	3	0	0	3	-6	-0.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.6	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.9	9
3	Gil Vicente	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.6	7
4	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.3	6
5	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.4	6
6	Casa Pia	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.9	6
7	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.1	4
8	Nacional	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.8	4
9	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.4	4
10	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-5	-3.9	4
11	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.6	3
12	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.3	3
13	Estrela	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
14	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
15	Alverca	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.5	1
16	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.2	1
17	AVS	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.6	1
18	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.