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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Man United

T U U S T

2–1

Full-time

Chelsea

U S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,3

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,84 xG 0,43

41% Possession 59%

11 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

3 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Man United 17. · Chelsea 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+6	+3.0	15
2	Tottenham	5	3	1	1	+7	+0.1	10
3	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+8	+4.1	9
4	Crystal Palace	5	2	3	0	+4	+3.8	9
5	Bournemouth	4	3	0	1	+1	+2.5	9
6	Chelsea	4	2	2	0	+6	+4.1	8
7	Sunderland	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.1	7
8	Everton	5	2	1	2	+1	-0.0	7
9	Leeds	5	2	1	2	-3	-2.5	7
10	Man City	4	2	0	2	+4	+3.0	6
11	Newcastle	4	1	2	1	+0	+2.3	5
12	Fulham	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.9	5
13	Brighton	5	1	2	2	-2	+1.3	5
14	Nott'm Forest	5	1	2	2	-4	-2.9	5
15	Brentford	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.5	4
16	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-3	-6.3	4
17	Man United	4	1	1	2	-3	+1.4	4
18	West Ham	5	1	0	4	-8	-2.8	3
19	Aston Villa	4	0	2	2	-4	-4.3	2
20	Wolves	5	0	0	5	-9	-3.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.7	9
2	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+8	+4.3	6
3	Sunderland	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.5	6
4	Bournemouth	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.7	6
5	Brighton	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.3	5
6	Everton	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
7	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.3	4
8	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+1	-2.5	4
9	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
10	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
11	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.6	4
12	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.0	3
13	Man City	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.5	3
14	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.3	3
15	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.6	3
16	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.4	3
17	Crystal Palace	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.6	2
18	Aston Villa	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.7	1
19	Wolves	3	0	0	3	-7	-1.4	0
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+5	+0.2	7
2	Crystal Palace	3	2	1	0	+4	+2.2	7
3	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.2	6
4	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+4	+1.8	4
5	Man City	2	1	0	1	+3	+1.5	3
6	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.5	3
7	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
8	Everton	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.7	3
9	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.9	3
10	Leeds	3	1	0	2	-4	-4.1	3
11	Newcastle	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.0	2
12	Nott'm Forest	3	0	2	1	-3	-1.6	2
13	Aston Villa	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
14	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.0	1
15	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.6	1
16	Man United	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.2	1
17	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.9	0
18	Brentford	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.7	0
19	Brighton	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.0	0
20	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.