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Bundesliga

Referee: Benjamin Brand

RB Leipzig

T S T S S

3–1

Full-time

FC Koln

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig FC Koln

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,7

Scored

1,5

2,7

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

1,0

2,7

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

3,28 xG 1,70

47% Possession 53%

18 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 6

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 5

3 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 9. · FC Koln 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+15	+9.1	12
2	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+5	+4.0	7
3	FC Koln	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.2	7
4	St Pauli	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.8	7
5	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.9	6
6	Freiburg	4	2	0	2	+0	+2.3	6
7	Stuttgart	4	2	0	2	+0	+0.5	6
8	Hoffenheim	4	2	0	2	-2	-2.5	6
9	RB Leipzig	3	2	0	1	-3	+0.9	6
10	Wolfsburg	3	1	2	0	+2	+0.3	5
11	Leverkusen	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.2	4
12	Mainz	4	1	1	2	+1	+2.0	4
13	Werder Bremen	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.3	4
14	Hamburg	4	1	1	2	-6	-4.4	4
15	Augsburg	4	1	0	3	-3	-7.5	3
16	Union Berlin	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.9	3
17	M'gladbach	3	0	1	2	-5	+1.1	1
18	Heidenheim	4	0	0	4	-7	-4.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+11	+3.1	6
2	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.2	6
3	St Pauli	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.9	4
4	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
5	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.2	3
6	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.4	3
7	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
8	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.7	3
9	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.3	3
10	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
11	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.7	3
12	Wolfsburg	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.5	2
13	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.7	1
14	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-4	+0.1	1
15	Mainz	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
16	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-4	-5.1	0
17	Heidenheim	2	0	0	2	-4	-4.1	0
18	Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+4	+5.9	6
2	Hoffenheim	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.1	6
3	Mainz	2	1	1	0	+3	+2.7	4
4	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.6	4
5	FC Koln	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.0	4
6	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.7	3
7	Werder Bremen	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.6	3
8	Augsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.4	3
9	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.3	3
10	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
11	St Pauli	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
12	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	-5	-0.3	3
13	Leverkusen	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
14	Hamburg	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.7	1
15	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.0	0
16	Stuttgart	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.4	0
17	Heidenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
18	Union Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.