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Serie B
Referee: Davide Di Marco
Empoli
S T U T T
2–2
Full-time
Carrarese
T S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Empoli Carrarese
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,3
2,5
Scored
1,2
1,2
Conceded
2,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Serie B · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 25%
25%
25%
Points per game
1,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
75%
25%
Both score Ø 63%
75%
50%
Average goals
3,5
2,8
Scored
1,3
1,5
Conceded
2,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

52% Possession 48%
13 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 3
0 Offside 2
20 Free kicks against 15
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Empoli 16. · Carrarese 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Modena 5 4 1 0 +8 13
2 Frosinone 5 3 2 0 +7 11
3 Palermo 5 3 2 0 +5 11
4 Cesena 5 3 2 0 +4 11
5 Avellino 5 3 1 1 +2 10
6 Sudtirol 5 2 2 1 +2 8
7 Venezia 5 2 2 1 +2 8
8 Juve Stabia 5 1 4 0 +2 7
9 Monza 5 2 1 2 +0 7
10 Padova 5 2 1 2 -1 7
11 Carrarese 4 1 2 1 +1 5
12 Catanzaro 5 0 5 0 +0 5
13 Reggiana 5 1 2 2 -1 5
14 Virtus Entella 5 1 2 2 -2 5
15 Pescara 5 1 1 3 +0 4
16 Empoli 4 1 1 2 -4 4
17 Mantova 5 1 0 4 -7 3
18 Bari 5 0 2 3 -6 2
19 Spezia 5 0 2 3 -6 2
20 Sampdoria 5 0 1 4 -6 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Empoli Carrarese
5′
🟨 Emanuele Zuelli
15′
S. Zanon 0–1
E. Zuelli
Franco Carboni ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
19′
Andrea Ghion 🟨
33′
Franco Carboni 🟨
40′
1–1 S. Shpendi
43′
Half-time 1–1
48′
🟨 Kleis Bozhanaj
56′
🟨 Nikola Sekulov
J. Ceesay 🔁
↦ F. Carboni
59′
62′
🔁 F. Abiuso
↦ K. Bozhanaj
63′
🔁 T. Rubino
↦ N. Sekulov
65′
ℹ️ Mattia Finotto
VAR: Penalty cancelled
70′
🔁 F. Ruggeri
↦ N. Calabrese
R. Ilie 🔁
↦ E. Saporiti
71′
B. Moruzzi 🔁
↦ G. Yepes
71′
B. Popov 🔁
↦ S. Shpendi
71′
2–1 J. Ceesay
L. Ignacchiti
78′
M. Curto 🔁
↦ G. Guarino
82′
82′
🔁 N. Belloni
↦ M. Cicconi
83′
🔁 D. Bouah
↦ F. Oliana
88′
M. Finotto 2–2
F. Abiuso
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Empoli

3-5-2
21 A. Fulignati G
20 M. Lovato D
34 G. Guarino D
5 N. Obaretin D
7 S. Elia M
25 L. Ignacchiti M
18 A. Ghion M
14 G. Yepes M
79 F. Carboni M
70 E. Saporiti F
11 S. Shpendi F
Bench (12)
1 S. Perisan
2 M. Curto
8 L. Belardinelli
10 R. Ilie
15 J. Ceesay
24 T. Ebuehi
27 B. Moruzzi
28 G. Indragoli
29 L. Tosto
32 N. Haas
77 B. Popov
99 F. Bianchi

Coach: Guido Pagliuca

Carrarese

3-4-3
1 M. Bleve G
37 N. Calabrese D
6 F. Oliana D
3 M. Imperiale D
72 S. Zanon M
18 N. Schiavi M
17 E. Zuelli M
11 M. Cicconi M
44 N. Sekulov F
32 M. Finotto F
10 K. Bozhanaj F
Bench (12)
99 V. Fiorillo
26 F. Ruggeri
5 B. Salamon
7 N. Belloni
13 D. Bouah
8 F. Melegoni
77 G. Parlanti
9 F. Abiuso
80 F. Accornero
30 A. Arena
21 T. Rubino
92 E. Torregrossa

Coach: Nicola Antonio Calabro

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,07
U ✓
3,17
B
3,45
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,21
U2,5
1,59
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Davide Di Marco · 10 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
28,2 / match
Average

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.