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Europa League
Referee: Espen Eskas
Sp Braga
S T S U S
2–0
Full-time
FK Crvena Zvezda
U T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga FK Crvena Zvezda
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
0%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
33%
100%
Average goals
1,5
2,7
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
0,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 8/2 matches
Win Ø 44%
88%
0%
Points per game
2,8
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 44%
38%
50%
Both score Ø 63%
25%
100%
Average goals
2,4
2,5
Scored
2,1
1,0
Conceded
0,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,9
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,73 xG 0,41
50% Possession 50%
11 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 2
2 Offside 3
13 Free kicks against 5
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Sp Braga FK Crvena Zvezda
1–0 F. Navarro ⚽
R. Horta
22′
37′
🔁 Bruno Duarte
↦ M. Arnautovic
Half-time 1–0
47′
🟨 Mirko Ivanić
60′
🔁 Milson
↦ N. Radonjic
60′
🔁 T. Elsnik
↦ V. Kostov
P. Victor 🔁
↦ F. Navarro
66′
M. Dorgeles 🔁
↦ R. Zalazar
66′
2–0 M. Dorgeles ⚽
R. Horta
72′
Y. da Rocha 🔁
↦ G. Martinez
78′
D. Rodrigues 🔁
↦ J. Moutinho
78′
81′
🔁 M. Bajo
↦ R. Krunic
81′
🔁 L. Zaric
↦ M. Ivanic
J. Aragao 🔁
↦ R. Horta
93′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Sp Braga

3-4-2-1
1 L. Hornicek G
2 V. Gomez D
14 G. Lagerbielke D
26 B. Arrey-Mbi D
77 G. Martinez M
29 Gorby M
8 J. Moutinho M
5 L. Lelo M
10 R. Zalazar F
21 R. Horta F
39 F. Navarro F
Bench (12)
12 T. Sa
36 A. Bellaarouch
9 A. El Ouazzani
17 Gabriel Moscardo
18 P. Victor
20 M. Dorgeles
41 Y. da Rocha
50 D. Rodrigues
62 N. Matos
72 J. Aragao
81 F. Pascoal
95 S. Vidigal

Coach: Juan Carlos Vicens Gómez

FK Crvena Zvezda

4-2-3-1
1 Matheus G
66 Seol Young-Woo D
5 Rodrigo D
30 F. Tebo Uchenna D
23 N. Tiknizyan D
33 R. Krunic M
20 T. Handel M
49 N. Radonjic M
22 V. Kostov M
4 M. Ivanic M
89 M. Arnautovic F
Bench (12)
28 V. Draskic
77 I. Gutesa
6 M. Bajo
7 Milson
13 M. Veljkovic
14 P. Olayinka
17 Bruno Duarte
21 T. Elsnik
24 N. Stankovic
25 S. Lekovic
40 L. Zaric
71 A. Avdic

Coach: Vladan Milojević

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Espen Eskas · 120 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.