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Ekstraklasa
Referee: D Stefanski
Jagiellonia
T T U T T
1–2
Full-time
Lech Poznan
U U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Jagiellonia Lech Poznan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,3
2,8
Scored
1,0
1,5
Conceded
2,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,2
This season — Ekstraklasa · 16/15 matches
Win Ø 36%
25%
47%
Points per game
1,1
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
50%
40%
Both score Ø 52%
63%
40%
Average goals
3,0
2,1
Scored
1,5
1,2
Conceded
1,5
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

32% Possession 68%
10 Shots 19
4 Shots on target 8
0 Blocked shots 7
6 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 7
2 Offside 0
13 Free kicks against 19
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Jagiellonia 13. · Lech Poznan 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Rakow 16 12 2 2 +22 38
2 Legia 16 9 4 3 +5 31
3 Widzew Lodz 17 9 2 6 +5 29
4 Wisla Plock 17 8 4 5 +5 28
5 Stal Mielec 17 8 3 6 +3 27
6 Pogon Szczecin 16 7 5 4 +3 26
7 Cracovia 17 7 4 6 +6 25
8 Lech Poznan 15 7 4 4 +4 25
9 Warta Poznan 17 7 4 6 +2 25
10 Radomiak Radom 16 7 2 7 -1 23
11 Gornik Zabrze 16 5 5 6 -1 20
12 Slask Wroclaw 16 5 5 6 -5 20
13 Jagiellonia 16 4 6 6 +0 18
14 Zaglebie 16 4 5 7 -13 17
15 Lechia Gdansk 15 4 2 9 -11 14
16 Piast Gliwice 16 3 4 9 -6 13
17 Korona Kielce 17 3 4 10 -9 13
18 Legnica 16 3 3 10 -9 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Jagiellonia Lech Poznan
25′
🟨 Michał Skóraś
Wojciech Łaski 🟨
38′
Half-time 1–0
1–0 M. Skrzypczak
Jesús Imaz
46′
46′
🔁 F. Dagerstål
↦ A. Milić
Nené 🟨
48′
51′
M. Ishak 1–1
R. Murawski
53′
🟨 Alan Czerwiński
57′
🔁 F. Marchwiński
↦ M. Skóraś
57′
🔁 Joel Pereira
↦ A. Czerwiński
57′
🔁 F. Szymczak
↦ João Amaral
M. Pospíšil 🔁
↦ M. Matysik
71′
F. Černych 🔁
↦ W. Łaski
71′
J. Lewicki 🔁
↦ M. Skrzypczak
75′
88′
🔁 A. Ba Loua
↦ G. Tsitaishvili
91′
F. Szymczak 1–2
M. Ishak
M. Bortniczuk 🔁
↦ Marc Gual
96′
Juan Cámara 🔁
↦ Nené
96′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Jagiellonia

5-3-2
1 Z. Alomerović G
77 W. Łaski D
72 M. Skrzypczak D
4 Israel Puerto D
25 B. Țîru D
5 B. Nastić D
14 T. Přikryl M
32 M. Matysik M
8 Nené M
28 Marc Gual F
11 Jesús Imaz F
Bench (9)
26 M. Pospíšil
10 F. Černych
36 J. Lewicki
34 M. Bortniczuk
7 Juan Cámara
27 B. Wdowik
50 S. Abramowicz
22 O. Wojciechowski
74 A. Trubeha

Coach: M. Stolarczyk

Lech Poznan

4-2-3-1
35 F. Bednarek G
44 A. Czerwiński D
37 Ľ. Šatka D
16 A. Milić D
5 Pedro Rebocho D
22 R. Murawski M
6 J. Karlström M
14 G. Tsitaishvili M
24 João Amaral M
21 M. Skóraś M
9 M. Ishak F
Bench (9)
25 F. Dagerstål
11 F. Marchwiński
2 Joel Pereira
17 F. Szymczak
50 A. Ba Loua
18 B. Salamon
30 N. Kvekveskiri
1 A. Rudko
90 A. Sobiech

Coach: J. van den Brom

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U
B ✓
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D Stefanski · 87 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.