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Bundesliga
Referee: F Badstübner
Dortmund
S S S S S
2–3
Full-time
Werder Bremen
S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Werder Bremen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
83%
50%
Points per game
2,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,7
3,5
Scored
2,5
2,2
Conceded
1,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,8
This season — Bundesliga · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
100%
0%
Points per game
3,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 75%
50%
100%
Average goals
2,5
4,0
Scored
2,0
2,0
Conceded
0,5
2,0
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%
5 Shots 14
3 Shots on target 7
1 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 5
7 Offside 3
13 Free kicks against 9
4 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Dortmund 3. · Werder Bremen 10.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 M'gladbach 3 2 1 0 +3 7
2 Bayern Munich 2 2 0 0 +7 6
3 Dortmund 2 2 0 0 +3 6
4 FC Koln 2 1 1 0 +2 4
5 Union Berlin 2 1 1 0 +2 4
6 Mainz 2 1 1 0 +1 4
7 Freiburg 2 1 0 1 +2 3
8 Hoffenheim 2 1 0 1 -1 3
9 Augsburg 2 1 0 1 -3 3
10 Werder Bremen 2 0 2 0 +0 2
11 Stuttgart 2 0 2 0 +0 2
12 RB Leipzig 2 0 2 0 +0 2
13 Schalke 04 2 0 1 1 -2 1
14 Wolfsburg 2 0 1 1 -2 1
15 Hertha 3 0 1 2 -3 1
16 Ein Frankfurt 2 0 1 1 -5 1
17 Bochum 2 0 0 2 -2 0
18 Leverkusen 2 0 0 2 -2 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Dortmund Werder Bremen
E. Can 🔁
↦ M. Dahoud
18′
29′
🟨 Niclas Füllkrug
Anthony Modeste 🟨
39′
Emre Can 🟨
42′
Half-time 1–0
1–0 J. Brandt
M. Reus
47′
N. Süle 🔁
↦ M. Hummels
62′
T. Hazard 🔁
↦ J. Brandt
62′
G. Reyna 🔁
↦ J. Bynoe-Gittens
62′
62′
🔁 R. Schmid
↦ J. Stage
70′
🔁 N. Schmidt
↦ L. Bittencourt
70′
🔁 L. Buchanan
↦ A. Jung
2–0 Raphaël Guerreiro
M. Reus
77′
Y. Moukoko 🔁
↦ A. Modeste
81′
81′
🔁 I. Gruev
↦ C. Groß
81′
🔁 O. Burke
↦ M. Ducksch
Marius Wolf 🟨
83′
89′
L. Buchanan 2–1
Marco Reus 🟨
91′
93′
N. Schmidt 2–2
A. Pieper
95′
O. Burke 2–3
M. Weiser
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Dortmund

4-2-3-1
1 G. Kobel G
15 M. Hummels D
13 Raphaël Guerreiro D
4 N. Schlotterbeck D
11 M. Reus M
19 J. Brandt M
17 M. Wolf D
8 M. Dahoud M
22 J. Bellingham M
20 A. Modeste F
43 J. Bynoe-Gittens M
Bench (9)
23 E. Can
25 N. Süle
10 T. Hazard
7 G. Reyna
18 Y. Moukoko
33 A. Meyer
24 T. Meunier
36 T. Rothe
6 S. Özcan

Coach: E. Terzić

Werder Bremen

3-5-2
1 J. Pavlenka G
36 C. Groß M
3 A. Jung M
8 M. Weiser M
13 M. Veljković D
5 A. Pieper D
32 M. Friedl D
10 L. Bittencourt M
6 J. Stage M
11 N. Füllkrug F
7 M. Ducksch F
Bench (9)
20 R. Schmid
22 N. Schmidt
26 L. Buchanan
28 I. Gruev
9 O. Burke
4 N. Stark
30 M. Zetterer
27 F. Agu
23 N. Rapp

Coach: O. Werner

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,39
U
5,36
B ✓
7,39
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,40
U2,5
2,97
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F Badstübner · 96 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.