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Super League
Referee: F San
Lugano
U T T T T
1–1
Full-time
Luzern
U T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Luzern
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,7
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,5
2,0
Scored
1,2
0,8
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,3
This season — Super League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,7
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,5
2,0
Scored
1,2
0,8
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

47% Possession 53%
13 Shots 14
1 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 0
9 Corners 8
3 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lugano 9. · Luzern 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sion 7 5 1 1 +4 16
2 Basel 6 5 0 1 +9 15
3 Young Boys 6 4 2 0 +8 14
4 St. Gallen 7 3 1 3 +0 10
5 Servette 7 2 3 2 +1 9
6 Luzern 6 1 2 3 -2 5
7 Thun 6 1 2 3 -4 5
8 Zurich 6 1 2 3 -9 5
9 Lugano 6 1 1 4 -1 4
10 Xamax 7 0 4 3 -6 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lugano Luzern
1–0 Carlinhos
F. Daprelà
4′
Bálint Vécsei 🟨
22′
28′
F. Margiotta 1–1
35′
🟨 Silvan Sidler
Half-time 1–1
N. Dalmonte 🔁
↦ M. Aratore
62′
S. Lovric 🔁
↦ B. Vécsei
69′
69′
🔁 Ryder Matos
↦ S. Demhasaj
71′
🟨 Otar Kakabadze
Carlinhos Junior 🟨
72′
79′
🔁 B. Eleke
↦ F. Margiotta
A. Gerndt 🔁
↦ F. Holender
85′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Lugano

4-3-3
46 N. Baumann G
5 M. Marić D
30 F. Daprelà D
16 N. Lavanchy D
4 A. Kecskés D
70 M. Aratore F
14 J. Sabbatini M
17 B. Vécsei M
20 O. Custodio M
9 F. Holender F
11 Carlinhos F
Bench (7)
23 N. Dalmonte
24 S. Lovric
19 A. Gerndt
1 D. da Costa
21 L. Obexer
18 E. Yao
74 S. Piazza

Coach: F. Celestini

Luzern

4-4-1-1
32 M. Müller G
2 O. Kakabadze D
5 Lucão D
15 M. Schulz M
4 S. Knežević D
34 S. Sidler D
42 I. Voca M
11 P. Schürpf M
9 F. Margiotta F
20 S. Demhasaj M
7 I. Ndiaye F
Bench (7)
77 Ryder Matos
10 B. Eleke
29 D. Males
3 L. Ćirković
25 D. Mistrafovic
73 A. Binous
1 D. Zibung

Coach: T. Häberli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U ✓
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F San · 140 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.