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Eredivisie

Referee: R Hensgens

Heerenveen

U T T T U

4–0

Full-time

NAC Breda

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen NAC Breda

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,3

4,5

Scored

0,7

2,3

Conceded

2,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 2/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

1,5

3,7

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

1,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,60 xG 1,72

62% Possession 38%

16 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 15. · NAC Breda 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	4	3	1	0	+5	+4.7	10
2	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+12	+6.3	9
3	Groningen	4	2	2	0	+4	+0.7	8
4	Utrecht	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.1	7
5	Nijmegen	4	2	0	2	+2	-0.3	6
6	For Sittard	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.5	6
7	Feyenoord	3	1	2	0	+4	+3.6	5
8	Willem II	3	1	2	0	+2	-1.5	5
9	Twente	2	1	1	0	+1	+3.0	4
10	Ajax	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.3	3
11	Sparta Rotterdam	3	0	3	0	+0	-1.6	3
12	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	0	2	-2	+2.0	3
13	NAC Breda	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.4	3
14	Heracles	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.9	2
15	Heerenveen	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.6	1
16	Almere City	4	0	1	3	-10	-5.6	1
17	Zwolle	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.9	0
18	Waalwijk	4	0	0	4	-10	-7.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Groningen	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.2	4
2	PSV Eindhoven	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.0	3
3	Willem II	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.5	3
4	Ajax	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
5	Utrecht	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
6	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
7	For Sittard	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.2	3
8	NAC Breda	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.3	3
9	Go Ahead Eagles	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.5	3
10	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
11	Sparta Rotterdam	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.1	2
12	Twente	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.5	1
13	Heerenveen	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.6	1
14	Feyenoord	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.7	1
15	Heracles	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.9	1
16	Almere City	3	0	1	2	-7	-3.0	1
17	Zwolle	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.9	0
18	Waalwijk	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	3	2	1	0	+4	+4.0	7
2	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+8	+4.4	6
3	Feyenoord	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.0	4
4	Groningen	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
5	Utrecht	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
6	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.2	3
7	For Sittard	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.7	3
8	Twente	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
9	Willem II	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.0	2
10	Sparta Rotterdam	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
11	Heracles	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
12	Ajax	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
13	Heerenveen	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
14	Go Ahead Eagles	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
15	Zwolle	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.1	0
16	NAC Breda	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.0	0
17	Almere City	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
18	Waalwijk	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.