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Ligue 1

Referee: E Wattellier

Paris SG

U U S S S

4–3

Full-time

Troyes

S U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Troyes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

2,2

1,7

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,0

This season — Ligue 1 · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 54%

83%

25%

Points per game

2,7

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

58%

75%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

3,1

3,8

Scored

2,7

1,8

Conceded

0,4

2,0

Goal diff per game

+2,3

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

67% Possession 33%

19 Shots 16

11 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

8 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Troyes 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	2	0	+27	32
2	Lens	13	9	3	1	+14	30
3	Lorient	12	8	3	1	+7	27
4	Rennes	12	7	3	2	+13	24
5	Marseille	12	7	2	3	+11	23
6	Lille	12	7	1	4	+4	22
7	Monaco	12	6	3	3	+5	21
8	Lyon	12	5	2	5	+5	17
9	Clermont	12	5	2	5	-3	17
10	Toulouse	13	4	4	5	-4	16
11	Troyes	12	3	4	5	-3	13
12	Nice	12	3	4	5	-4	13
13	Montpellier	12	4	0	8	-2	12
14	Reims	12	2	6	4	-6	12
15	Nantes	12	2	5	5	-6	11
16	Strasbourg	12	1	6	5	-7	9
17	Brest	12	2	3	7	-12	9
18	Auxerre	12	2	3	7	-13	9
19	Ajaccio	12	2	2	8	-11	8
20	Angers	12	2	2	8	-15	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lens	7	7	0	0	+11	21
2	Rennes	6	5	0	1	+11	15
3	Lyon	6	4	1	1	+9	13
4	Paris SG	5	4	1	0	+6	13
5	Lorient	5	4	1	0	+5	13
6	Marseille	7	4	1	2	+4	13
7	Toulouse	7	3	3	1	+1	12
8	Lille	6	4	0	2	-1	12
9	Montpellier	7	3	0	4	-2	9
10	Clermont	6	3	0	3	-5	9
11	Nantes	5	2	2	1	+2	8
12	Monaco	6	2	2	2	-1	8
13	Troyes	6	1	4	1	-1	7
14	Auxerre	6	1	3	2	-3	6
15	Reims	6	1	3	2	-4	6
16	Nice	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Angers	7	1	1	5	-8	4
18	Strasbourg	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Brest	5	0	2	3	-9	2
20	Ajaccio	6	0	1	5	-9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+21	19
2	Lorient	7	4	2	1	+2	14
3	Monaco	6	4	1	1	+6	13
4	Marseille	5	3	1	1	+7	10
5	Lille	6	3	1	2	+5	10
6	Lens	6	2	3	1	+3	9
7	Rennes	6	2	3	1	+2	9
8	Clermont	6	2	2	2	+2	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	+0	8
10	Ajaccio	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Brest	7	2	1	4	-3	7
12	Strasbourg	6	1	3	2	-1	6
13	Troyes	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	Reims	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Lyon	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Toulouse	6	1	1	4	-5	4
17	Angers	5	1	1	3	-7	4
18	Montpellier	5	1	0	4	+0	3
19	Nantes	7	0	3	4	-8	3
20	Auxerre	6	1	0	5	-10	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.