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Primeira Liga

Referee: António Nobre

Pacos Ferreira

S T U T T

1–0

Full-time

Tondela

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pacos Ferreira Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 10/11 matches

Win Ø 23%

10%

36%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

40%

36%

Both score Ø 38%

40%

36%

Average goals

2,3

1,9

Scored

0,6

1,0

Conceded

1,7

0,9

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

32% Possession 68%

9 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

24 Free kicks against 24

5 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Pacos Ferreira 18. · Tondela 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	11	0	1	+22	33
2	Porto	11	9	1	1	+20	28
3	Famalicao	11	7	3	1	+7	24
4	Rio Ave	12	5	3	4	+3	18
5	Sp Lisbon	10	5	2	3	+4	17
6	Guimaraes	10	4	4	2	+7	16
7	Tondela	11	4	4	3	+1	16
8	Boavista	11	3	6	2	+2	15
9	Gil Vicente	12	3	5	4	-3	14
10	Santa Clara	12	3	5	4	-3	14
11	Moreirense	12	2	6	4	-2	12
12	Sp Braga	11	3	3	5	-4	12
13	Setubal	11	2	6	3	-4	12
14	Vitoria Setubal	11	2	6	3	-4	12
15	Maritimo	11	2	5	4	-5	11
16	Belenenses	10	3	2	5	-8	11
17	Portimonense	11	1	5	5	-8	8
18	Pacos Ferreira	10	1	2	7	-11	5
19	Aves	11	1	0	10	-14	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+17	18
2	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+13	18
3	Famalicao	5	4	1	0	+6	13
4	Guimaraes	5	3	2	0	+10	11
5	Rio Ave	7	3	2	2	+3	11
6	Gil Vicente	7	2	5	0	+3	11
7	Setubal	6	2	4	0	+2	10
8	Vitoria Setubal	6	2	4	0	+2	10
9	Boavista	5	2	3	0	+3	9
10	Santa Clara	7	2	3	2	+0	9
11	Moreirense	5	2	2	1	+3	8
12	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+0	8
13	Sp Lisbon	4	2	0	2	+1	6
14	Belenenses	5	2	0	3	-3	6
15	Maritimo	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	1	3	-2	4
17	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-3	4
18	Aves	5	1	0	4	-2	3
19	Portimonense	5	0	2	3	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Tondela	6	3	3	0	+4	12
3	Sp Lisbon	6	3	2	1	+3	11
4	Famalicao	6	3	2	1	+1	11
5	Porto	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Rio Ave	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Boavista	6	1	3	2	-1	6
8	Maritimo	6	1	3	2	-3	6
9	Portimonense	6	1	3	2	-4	6
10	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-3	5
11	Santa Clara	5	1	2	2	-3	5
12	Belenenses	5	1	2	2	-5	5
13	Sp Braga	6	1	1	4	-4	4
14	Moreirense	7	0	4	3	-5	4
15	Gil Vicente	5	1	0	4	-6	3
16	Setubal	5	0	2	3	-6	2
17	Vitoria Setubal	5	0	2	3	-6	2
18	Pacos Ferreira	5	0	1	4	-9	1
19	Aves	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.