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Serie B

Referee: S Sozza

Perugia

T S T T U

1–3

Full-time

Bari

S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Perugia Bari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/4 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

33%

75%

Both score Ø 54%

33%

75%

Average goals

2,0

3,5

Scored

0,8

2,5

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,5

This season — Serie B · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

1,0

3,0

Scored

0,0

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

51% Possession 49%

22 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

9 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 16

5 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Perugia 19. · Bari 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ascoli	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	Frosinone	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Cosenza	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Palermo	3	1	1	1	+1	4
5	Genoa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Spal	3	1	1	1	-1	4
8	Modena	3	1	0	2	+1	3
9	Reggina	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Cittadella	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Venezia	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Brescia	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Ternana	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Bari	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Como	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Parma	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Pisa	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Benevento	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Perugia	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Sudtirol	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ascoli	2	1	1	0	+1	4
2	Frosinone	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Modena	2	1	0	1	+2	3
4	Brescia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Palermo	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Cittadella	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Cagliari	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Cosenza	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Ternana	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Spal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Parma	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Pisa	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Como	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Bari	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Genoa	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Perugia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Sudtirol	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Benevento	1	0	0	1	-1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reggina	2	1	0	1	+1	3
2	Ascoli	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	Genoa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Venezia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Cosenza	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Frosinone	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Bari	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Como	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Spal	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Palermo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Benevento	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Parma	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Pisa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Cittadella	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Modena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Sudtirol	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Perugia	1	0	0	1	-2	0
19	Brescia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
20	Ternana	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.