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Serie B
Referee: M Marchetti
Ascoli
T T T U T
1–2
Full-time
Spezia
T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ascoli Spezia
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
17%
0%
Points per game
0,7
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,3
1,8
Scored
0,8
0,5
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,8
This season — Serie B · 15/15 matches
Win Ø 14%
20%
7%
Points per game
0,9
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
40%
53%
Both score Ø 44%
47%
40%
Average goals
2,4
2,1
Scored
1,0
0,7
Conceded
1,4
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,4
-0,7
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

45% Possession 55%
12 Shots 7
4 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 17
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ascoli 17. · Spezia 19.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Parma 15 10 3 2 +16 33
2 Venezia 15 10 3 2 +13 33
3 Como 15 8 4 3 +4 28
4 Catanzaro 15 8 3 4 +5 27
5 Cremonese 15 7 5 3 +9 26
6 Modena 15 7 5 3 +2 26
7 Cittadella 15 7 4 4 +0 25
8 Palermo 15 7 3 5 +7 24
9 Cosenza 15 5 4 6 +1 19
10 Brescia 15 4 6 5 -1 18
11 Pisa 15 4 6 5 -1 18
12 Bari 15 3 9 3 -2 18
13 Sampdoria 15 5 3 7 -3 18
14 Sudtirol 15 4 5 6 +0 17
15 Reggiana 15 3 7 5 -4 16
16 Lecco 15 4 4 7 -7 16
17 Ascoli 15 3 4 8 -6 13
18 Ternana 15 2 5 8 -4 11
19 Spezia 15 1 7 7 -10 10
20 FeralpiSalo 15 1 4 10 -19 7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ascoli Spezia
20′
ℹ️ Francesco Pio Esposito
VAR: Penalty confirmed
22′
D. Verde 0–1
31′
🟨 Francesco Cassata
Giuseppe Bellusci 🟨
32′
Half-time 0–1
S. D'Uffizi 🔁
↦ T. Milanese
46′
1–1 G. Bellusci
Pedro Mendes
51′
Simone D'Uffizi 🟨
53′
53′
🟨 Kelvin Amian
63′
🔁 S. Żurkowski
↦ F. Cassata
63′
🔁 P. Hristov
↦ L. Mühl
B. Bayeye 🔁
↦ C. Adjapong
65′
69′
🔁 M. Antonucci
↦ D. Verde
77′
🟨 Szymon Żurkowski
K. Haveri 🔁
↦ G. Bellusci
83′
V. Millico 🔁
↦ Pablo Rodríguez
83′
S. Giovane 🔁
↦ P. Masini
86′
89′
P. Hristov 1–2
S. Esposito
Kevin Haveri 🟨
93′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Ascoli

3-4-1-2
2 E. Viviano G
55 G. Bellusci D
33 Eric Botteghin D
14 D. Quaranta D
17 C. Adjapong M
73 P. Masini M
18 F. Di Tacchio M
54 N. Falasco M
20 T. Milanese F
90 Pedro Mendes F
99 Pablo Rodríguez F
Bench (11)
15 S. D'Uffizi
40 B. Bayeye
3 K. Haveri
7 V. Millico
8 S. Giovane
28 G. Manzari
12 L. Bolletta
94 Y. Maiga
5 E. Gnahoré
1 D. Barosi
96 E. Rossi

Coach: F. Castori

Spezia

4-3-3
1 J. Zoet G
27 K. Amian D
23 L. Mühl D
43 D. Nikolaou D
7 S. Elia D
29 F. Cassata M
10 S. Esposito M
25 F. Bandinelli M
99 D. Verde F
9 F. Esposito F
80 R. Kouda F
Bench (12)
17 S. Żurkowski
55 P. Hristov
48 M. Antonucci
36 P. Candelari
19 R. Krollis
15 N. Pietra
24 L. Moro
77 N. Bertola
11 T. Cipot
33 I. Gelashvili
8 A. Ekdal
40 P. Zovko

Coach: L. D'Angelo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,91
U
3,07
B ✓
2,55
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,30
U2,5
1,60
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Marchetti · 77 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
27,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.