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La Liga

Referee: Víctor García

Ath Madrid

T S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Alaves

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Alaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 43%

54%

31%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

31%

62%

Both score Ø 42%

38%

46%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

0,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,65 xG 0,86

70% Possession 30%

11 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 0

3 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 3. · Alaves 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	13	11	0	2	+28	+14.9	33
2	Real Madrid	12	8	3	1	+14	+11.1	27
3	Ath Madrid	13	7	5	1	+12	+9.6	26
4	Villarreal	12	7	3	2	+4	+4.5	24
5	Osasuna	13	6	3	4	-3	-3.6	21
6	Ath Bilbao	13	5	5	3	+6	+5.7	20
7	Betis	14	5	5	4	+0	+3.6	20
8	Sociedad	13	5	3	5	+1	+3.3	18
9	Mallorca	13	5	3	5	+0	+3.2	18
10	Girona	13	5	3	5	-1	+3.1	18
11	Celta	13	5	2	6	-2	+2.8	17
12	Vallecano	12	4	4	4	+0	-0.3	16
13	Sevilla	13	4	3	6	-6	-2.8	15
14	Leganes	13	3	5	5	-3	-10.1	14
15	Getafe	14	2	7	5	-1	+1.7	13
16	Alaves	13	4	1	8	-8	-4.6	13
17	Las Palmas	13	3	3	7	-6	-12.1	12
18	Valencia	12	2	4	6	-7	-9.2	10
19	Espanol	12	3	1	8	-11	-10.9	10
20	Valladolid	14	2	3	9	-17	-9.7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	7	6	0	1	+11	+9.4	18
2	Osasuna	7	5	1	1	+5	+4.3	16
3	Barcelona	5	5	0	0	+15	+9.3	15
4	Ath Madrid	6	4	2	0	+10	+11.9	14
5	Betis	7	4	2	1	+4	+7.5	14
6	Celta	7	4	1	2	+4	+3.8	13
7	Ath Bilbao	7	3	3	1	+5	+3.2	12
8	Getafe	8	2	5	1	+3	+5.5	11
9	Villarreal	6	3	2	1	+2	+0.5	11
10	Girona	6	3	1	2	+2	+2.8	10
11	Leganes	6	3	1	2	+2	+0.5	10
12	Alaves	6	3	1	2	+0	-2.4	10
13	Mallorca	7	2	3	2	+0	+1.2	9
14	Espanol	6	3	0	3	-1	-1.0	9
15	Sevilla	6	3	0	3	-2	+1.6	9
16	Valencia	6	2	2	2	+2	-0.5	8
17	Vallecano	6	2	2	2	+0	+4.1	8
18	Sociedad	7	2	1	4	-2	+3.0	7
19	Las Palmas	6	1	3	2	-1	-3.8	6
20	Valladolid	7	1	3	3	-2	-2.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	8	6	0	2	+13	+5.7	18
2	Villarreal	6	4	1	1	+2	+4.0	13
3	Ath Madrid	7	3	3	1	+2	-2.2	12
4	Sociedad	6	3	2	1	+3	+0.3	11
5	Real Madrid	5	2	3	0	+3	+1.6	9
6	Mallorca	6	3	0	3	+0	+2.0	9
7	Ath Bilbao	6	2	2	2	+1	+2.5	8
8	Vallecano	6	2	2	2	+0	-4.4	8
9	Girona	7	2	2	3	-3	+0.2	8
10	Sevilla	7	1	3	3	-4	-4.4	6
11	Betis	7	1	3	3	-4	-3.8	6
12	Las Palmas	7	2	0	5	-5	-8.3	6
13	Osasuna	6	1	2	3	-8	-8.0	5
14	Leganes	7	0	4	3	-5	-10.6	4
15	Celta	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.1	4
16	Alaves	7	1	0	6	-8	-2.3	3
17	Valladolid	7	1	0	6	-15	-7.5	3
18	Getafe	6	0	2	4	-4	-3.8	2
19	Valencia	6	0	2	4	-9	-8.6	2
20	Espanol	6	0	1	5	-10	-9.8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.