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Serie A

Referee: R Abisso

Genoa

T U T T T

3–1

Full-time

Brescia

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genoa Brescia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

2,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-2,0

-0,5

This season — Serie A · 8/7 matches

Win Ø 21%

13%

29%

Points per game

0,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

88%

43%

Both score Ø 59%

75%

43%

Average goals

3,6

2,3

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

2,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,4

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

62% Possession 38%

12 Shots 4

11 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

24 Free kicks against 14

6 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Genoa 19. · Brescia 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	9	7	2	0	+8	23
2	Inter	9	7	1	1	+11	22
3	Atalanta	8	5	2	1	+8	17
4	Napoli	8	5	1	2	+7	16
5	Cagliari	8	4	2	2	+5	14
6	Parma	9	4	1	4	+2	13
7	Roma	8	3	4	1	+2	13
8	Lazio	8	3	3	2	+7	12
9	Fiorentina	8	3	3	2	+2	12
10	Torino	8	3	1	4	-1	10
11	Udinese	8	3	1	4	-2	10
12	Milan	8	3	1	4	-3	10
13	Sassuolo	8	3	0	5	-1	9
14	Bologna	8	2	3	3	-1	9
15	Verona	9	2	3	4	-2	9
16	Lecce	9	2	2	5	-8	8
17	Brescia	7	2	1	4	-2	7
18	Spal	8	2	0	6	-9	6
19	Genoa	8	1	2	5	-11	5
20	Sampdoria	8	1	1	6	-12	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	4	4	0	0	+5	12
2	Inter	5	3	1	1	+5	10
3	Napoli	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Parma	5	3	0	2	+3	9
5	Udinese	5	3	0	2	+0	9
6	Lazio	4	2	2	0	+6	8
7	Cagliari	5	2	1	2	+2	7
8	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Torino	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Sassuolo	4	2	0	2	+2	6
11	Spal	4	2	0	2	-1	6
12	Roma	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Verona	5	1	2	2	+0	5
14	Atalanta	3	1	1	1	+1	4
15	Bologna	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Milan	4	1	1	2	-3	4
18	Sampdoria	4	1	1	2	-4	4
19	Brescia	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	Lecce	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Inter	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Juventus	5	3	2	0	+3	11
4	Roma	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Napoli	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Cagliari	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Lecce	5	2	1	2	-3	7
8	Milan	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Brescia	4	2	0	2	+0	6
10	Fiorentina	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Bologna	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Lazio	4	1	1	2	+1	4
13	Parma	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Verona	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Torino	4	1	0	3	-2	3
16	Sassuolo	4	1	0	3	-3	3
17	Udinese	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Genoa	4	0	1	3	-10	1
19	Sampdoria	4	0	0	4	-8	0
20	Spal	4	0	0	4	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.