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Bundesliga

Referee: H Osmers

Freiburg

S U S U T

2–1

Full-time

RB Leipzig

U S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

75%

63%

Both score Ø 69%

63%

75%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,9

2,0

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

39% Possession 61%

14 Shots 25

3 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 10

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 6. · RB Leipzig 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	8	5	1	2	+8	16
2	Wolfsburg	8	4	4	0	+6	16
3	Bayern Munich	8	4	3	1	+12	15
4	Dortmund	8	4	3	1	+9	15
5	RB Leipzig	8	4	3	1	+8	15
6	Freiburg	8	4	2	2	+6	14
7	Schalke 04	8	4	2	2	+5	14
8	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	2	2	+4	14
9	Leverkusen	8	4	2	2	+1	14
10	Hertha	8	3	2	3	+0	11
11	Hoffenheim	8	3	2	3	-3	11
12	Werder Bremen	8	2	3	3	-4	9
13	Mainz	9	3	0	6	-9	9
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	8	2	1	5	-4	7
15	Union Berlin	8	2	1	5	-5	7
16	FC Koln	9	2	1	6	-10	7
17	Augsburg	8	1	3	4	-11	6
18	Paderborn	8	0	1	7	-13	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ein Frankfurt	5	3	2	0	+5	11
2	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+9	10
3	Leverkusen	4	2	2	0	+3	8
4	Wolfsburg	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Bayern Munich	4	2	1	1	+8	7
6	M'gladbach	4	2	1	1	+3	7
7	Schalke 04	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Mainz	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Hertha	3	2	0	1	+0	6
10	Union Berlin	5	2	0	3	-2	6
11	Hoffenheim	4	2	0	2	-3	6
12	Freiburg	4	1	2	1	+2	5
13	RB Leipzig	4	1	2	1	-1	5
14	Augsburg	4	1	2	1	-2	5
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Werder Bremen	4	1	1	2	-4	4
17	FC Koln	4	1	0	3	-4	3
18	Paderborn	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	4	3	1	0	+9	10
2	M'gladbach	4	3	0	1	+5	9
3	Freiburg	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Bayern Munich	4	2	2	0	+4	8
5	Wolfsburg	4	2	2	0	+4	8
6	Schalke 04	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Leverkusen	4	2	0	2	-2	6
8	Hertha	5	1	2	2	+0	5
9	Werder Bremen	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Dortmund	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Hoffenheim	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	FC Koln	5	1	1	3	-6	4
13	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	1	0	3	-2	3
15	Mainz	5	1	0	4	-9	3
16	Union Berlin	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Paderborn	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Augsburg	4	0	1	3	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.