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Serie B

Referee: M Di Bello

Ternana

T T U U T

1–0

Full-time

Bari

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ternana Bari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,5

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,5

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,8

This season — Serie B · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 38%

31%

45%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

52%

41%

Both score Ø 47%

45%

48%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

12 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ternana 13. · Bari 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Frosinone	30	19	5	6	+29	62
2	Genoa	30	16	9	5	+20	57
3	Sudtirol	30	13	12	5	+6	51
4	Bari	29	13	11	5	+18	50
5	Pisa	30	11	12	7	+13	45
6	Cagliari	30	11	12	7	+9	45
7	Reggina	29	13	3	13	+4	42
8	Palermo	30	10	12	8	+1	42
9	Parma	30	11	8	11	+2	41
10	Como	30	9	12	9	-1	39
11	Modena	30	11	5	14	-2	38
12	Ascoli	30	9	9	12	-6	36
13	Ternana	29	9	9	11	-8	36
14	Cittadella	30	8	11	11	-11	35
15	Perugia	29	9	6	14	-2	33
16	Venezia	30	8	9	13	-8	33
17	Cosenza	30	8	8	14	-22	32
18	Benevento	30	6	11	13	-10	29
19	Spal	30	6	10	14	-11	28
20	Brescia	30	6	10	14	-21	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Frosinone	15	11	2	2	+19	35
2	Cagliari	15	9	4	2	+9	31
3	Genoa	15	8	6	1	+14	30
4	Palermo	15	7	5	3	+7	26
5	Sudtirol	16	6	8	2	+4	26
6	Pisa	15	7	4	4	+10	25
7	Como	15	7	4	4	+6	25
8	Parma	15	7	2	6	+5	23
9	Reggina	15	7	2	6	+4	23
10	Ternana	14	6	5	3	+3	23
11	Cosenza	15	6	5	4	+2	23
12	Bari	15	5	7	3	+8	22
13	Modena	14	6	4	4	+7	22
14	Perugia	13	5	4	4	+3	19
15	Cittadella	15	4	7	4	-3	19
16	Brescia	16	4	5	7	-7	17
17	Spal	15	4	4	7	-1	16
18	Ascoli	15	3	5	7	-5	14
19	Venezia	15	3	5	7	-6	14
20	Benevento	15	3	4	8	-8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bari	14	8	4	2	+10	28
2	Frosinone	15	8	3	4	+10	27
3	Genoa	15	8	3	4	+6	27
4	Sudtirol	14	7	4	3	+2	25
5	Ascoli	15	6	4	5	-1	22
6	Pisa	15	4	8	3	+3	20
7	Reggina	14	6	1	7	+0	19
8	Venezia	15	5	4	6	-2	19
9	Parma	15	4	6	5	-3	18
10	Benevento	15	3	7	5	-2	16
11	Palermo	15	3	7	5	-6	16
12	Cittadella	15	4	4	7	-8	16
13	Modena	16	5	1	10	-9	16
14	Cagliari	15	2	8	5	+0	14
15	Perugia	16	4	2	10	-5	14
16	Como	15	2	8	5	-7	14
17	Ternana	15	3	4	8	-11	13
18	Spal	15	2	6	7	-10	12
19	Brescia	14	2	5	7	-14	11
20	Cosenza	15	2	3	10	-24	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.