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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Plymouth

T T S S U

1–2

Full-time

Southampton

T U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Plymouth Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/6 matches

Win Ø 29%

40%

17%

Points per game

1,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

40%

83%

Both score Ø 62%

40%

83%

Average goals

2,8

4,8

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

1,6

2,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

5,5

Scored

1,5

3,0

Conceded

0,5

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,39 xG 2,18

39% Possession 61%

15 Shots 19

2 Shots on target 9

9 Blocked shots 5

8 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 10

0 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Plymouth 4. · Southampton 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.7	6
2	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.1	6
3	Watford	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.7	4
4	Plymouth	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.3	4
5	Norwich	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
6	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.5	4
7	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.6	4
8	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
9	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
10	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.3	4
11	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.6	4
12	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.0	3
13	Hull	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.8	3
14	Stoke	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.2	3
15	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.0	3
16	QPR	2	1	0	1	-3	-3.0	3
17	Leeds	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.4	2
18	Cardiff	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.3	1
19	Swansea	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.4	1
20	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.5	1
21	Sunderland	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.5	0
22	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.3	0
23	Huddersfield	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.4	0
24	Middlesbrough	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Watford	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.7	4
2	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.6	3
3	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.4	3
4	Hull	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.4	3
5	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.1	3
6	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
7	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
8	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.2	3
9	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
10	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
11	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
12	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
13	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.6	2
14	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.7	1
15	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.0	1
16	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
17	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
18	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
19	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
20	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
21	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
22	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
23	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
2	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
3	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
4	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
5	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
6	QPR	2	1	0	1	-3	-3.0	3
7	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.7	1
8	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
9	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.0	1
10	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
11	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
12	Plymouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
13	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.8	1
14	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
15	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.2	0
16	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
17	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
18	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
19	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.4	0
20	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.1	0
21	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
22	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.6	0
23	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.