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Championship

Referee: James Bell

Oxford

U S T U T

1–0

Full-time

Derby

S T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Oxford Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 11%

11%

Points per game

0,7

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

56%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

56%

78%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,17 xG 0,25

49% Possession 51%

19 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 12

1 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Oxford 22. · Derby 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	9	6	2	1	+7	+2.3	20
2	Coventry	9	5	4	0	+20	+15.0	19
3	Leicester	9	4	4	1	+5	-2.2	16
4	Preston	9	4	4	1	+4	-0.9	16
5	Stoke	9	4	3	2	+5	+0.2	15
6	QPR	9	4	3	2	-1	-1.4	15
7	West Brom	9	4	2	3	-1	+0.7	14
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	-3	-0.2	14
9	Ipswich	9	3	4	2	+6	+7.0	13
10	Bristol City	9	3	4	2	+5	+2.6	13
11	Watford	9	3	3	3	+0	+2.9	12
12	Swansea	9	3	3	3	+0	+0.5	12
13	Charlton	9	3	3	3	+0	-0.5	12
14	Portsmouth	9	3	3	3	-1	-0.9	12
15	Hull	9	3	3	3	-2	-5.5	12
16	Birmingham	9	3	3	3	-3	+2.6	12
17	Wrexham	9	2	4	3	-1	-5.2	10
18	Southampton	8	2	4	2	-1	+3.7	10
19	Norwich	9	2	2	5	-3	-4.7	8
20	Derby	9	1	5	3	-4	-4.4	8
21	Blackburn	8	2	1	5	-4	+1.3	7
22	Oxford	9	1	3	5	-3	-1.9	6
23	Sheffield Weds	9	1	3	5	-12	-8.8	6
24	Sheffield United	9	1	0	8	-13	-2.3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	5	4	1	0	+4	+0.3	13
2	Ipswich	5	3	2	0	+8	+6.2	11
3	Preston	5	3	2	0	+4	-0.4	11
4	Watford	5	3	1	1	+2	+2.8	10
5	Hull	5	3	1	1	+1	-2.2	10
6	Coventry	4	2	2	0	+9	+7.1	8
7	Leicester	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.6	8
8	QPR	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.3	8
9	Birmingham	4	2	2	0	+2	+3.0	8
10	Charlton	4	2	1	1	+3	+2.2	7
11	Stoke	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.5	7
12	Portsmouth	5	2	1	2	-1	-0.2	7
13	Swansea	5	1	3	1	-1	+1.1	6
14	Millwall	5	2	0	3	-5	-1.2	6
15	West Brom	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.7	5
16	Bristol City	5	1	2	2	-1	+0.8	5
17	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	+3.6	4
18	Wrexham	5	0	3	2	-3	-0.5	3
19	Derby	5	0	3	2	-3	-1.2	3
20	Oxford	4	0	2	2	-2	+1.4	2
21	Blackburn	4	0	1	3	-4	-0.5	1
22	Sheffield Weds	5	0	1	4	-13	-6.6	1
23	Norwich	4	0	0	4	-4	+0.3	0
24	Sheffield United	4	0	0	4	-6	-0.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	5	3	2	0	+11	+7.9	11
2	West Brom	5	3	0	2	-1	-1.0	9
3	Bristol City	4	2	2	0	+6	+1.8	8
4	Stoke	5	2	2	1	+3	-1.2	8
5	Leicester	5	2	2	1	+2	-4.8	8
6	Millwall	4	2	2	0	+2	+1.0	8
7	Norwich	5	2	2	1	+1	-5.0	8
8	Middlesbrough	4	2	1	1	+3	+2.0	7
9	Wrexham	4	2	1	1	+2	-4.7	7
10	QPR	5	2	1	2	-4	-2.8	7
11	Swansea	4	2	0	2	+1	-0.5	6
12	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	+0	+1.8	6
13	Southampton	5	1	3	1	-1	+0.1	6
14	Sheffield Weds	4	1	2	1	+1	-2.1	5
15	Preston	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.5	5
16	Portsmouth	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.7	5
17	Derby	4	1	2	1	-1	-3.2	5
18	Charlton	5	1	2	2	-3	-2.7	5
19	Oxford	5	1	1	3	-1	-3.3	4
20	Birmingham	5	1	1	3	-5	-0.5	4
21	Sheffield United	5	1	0	4	-7	-1.9	3
22	Ipswich	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.8	2
23	Watford	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.1	2
24	Hull	4	0	2	2	-3	-3.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.