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DFB-Pokal

Referee: Felix Zwayer

Fortuna Dusseldorf

T S T T T

1–3

Full-time

Freiburg

U U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fortuna Dusseldorf Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — DFB-Pokal · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

6,0

2,0

Scored

4,0

2,0

Conceded

2,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

61% Possession 39%

19 Shots 19

4 Shots on target 7

9 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fortuna Dusseldorf 18. · Freiburg 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Kaiserslautern	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Magdeburg	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	M'gladbach	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Bochum	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Holstein Kiel	2	2	0	0	+3	6
8	Hamburg	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	+5	4
10	Hoffenheim	2	1	1	0	+4	4
11	Hertha	2	1	1	0	+3	4
12	Stuttgart	2	1	1	0	+2	4
13	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+8	3
15	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+5	3
16	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+4	3
17	Karlsruhe	2	1	0	1	+3	3
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Augsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	3
22	Greuther Furth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Schalke 04	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Paderborn	2	1	0	1	+0	3
28	Mainz	2	1	0	1	-1	3
29	Cottbus	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
31	St Pauli	2	0	2	0	+0	2
32	Braunschweig	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Nurnberg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Preußen Münster	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Eintracht Norderstedt	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Illertissen	2	0	1	1	-3	1
37	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Atlas Delmenhorst	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Regensburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	VfB Lubeck	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Pirmasens	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Ulm	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Lokomotive Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Sandhausen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	FC Schweinfurt 05	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	FC Saarbrücken	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	FC Viktoria Koln	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	BFC Dynamo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	BW Lohne	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	FC 08 Homburg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Sportfreunde Lotte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-4	0
58	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	1	0	0	1	-4	0
59	FV Engers 07	1	0	0	1	-5	0
60	FC Gutersloh	1	0	0	1	-5	0
61	Bahlinger SC	1	0	0	1	-5	0
62	ZFC Meuselwitz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
63	RSV Eintracht	1	0	0	1	-7	0
64	Hemelingen	1	0	0	1	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Cottbus	2	1	0	1	-2	3
5	Braunschweig	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Ein Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	St Pauli	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Preußen Münster	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Eintracht Norderstedt	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Illertissen	2	0	1	1	-3	1
11	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Atlas Delmenhorst	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Regensburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	VfB Lubeck	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Pirmasens	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Wolfsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Greuther Furth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Ulm	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Lokomotive Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Paderborn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Sandhausen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	FC Schweinfurt 05	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	FC Saarbrücken	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	FC Viktoria Koln	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	BFC Dynamo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Mainz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	BW Lohne	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	FC 08 Homburg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Sportfreunde Lotte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-4	0
36	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	1	0	0	1	-4	0
37	FV Engers 07	1	0	0	1	-5	0
38	FC Gutersloh	1	0	0	1	-5	0
39	Bahlinger SC	1	0	0	1	-5	0
40	ZFC Meuselwitz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
41	RSV Eintracht	1	0	0	1	-7	0
42	Hemelingen	1	0	0	1	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Kaiserslautern	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Magdeburg	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Bochum	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Holstein Kiel	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Hamburg	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Hoffenheim	2	1	1	0	+4	4
9	Stuttgart	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+9	3
12	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+5	3
13	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+5	3
14	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+5	3
15	Karlsruhe	2	1	0	1	+3	3
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Greuther Furth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Mainz	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Schalke 04	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
28	Nurnberg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Hertha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	St Pauli	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.