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Serie A

Referee: A Rapuano

Empoli

U T S T U

1–0

Full-time

Monza

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Empoli Monza

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

This season — Serie A · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 22%

11%

33%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

33%

56%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,1

2,6

Scored

0,9

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

36% Possession 64%

11 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 9

1 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 14

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Empoli 14. · Monza 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	9	7	2	0	+15	23
2	Atalanta	9	6	3	0	+9	21
3	Lazio	9	6	2	1	+16	20
4	Udinese	9	6	2	1	+9	20
5	Milan	9	6	2	1	+9	20
6	Roma	9	6	1	2	+3	19
7	Inter	9	5	0	4	+2	15
8	Juventus	9	3	4	2	+5	13
9	Sassuolo	9	3	3	3	+1	12
10	Torino	9	3	2	4	-3	11
11	Salernitana	9	2	4	3	-2	10
12	Monza	9	3	1	5	-5	10
13	Fiorentina	9	2	3	4	-4	9
14	Empoli	9	1	5	3	-3	8
15	Spezia	9	2	2	5	-10	8
16	Lecce	9	1	4	4	-3	7
17	Bologna	9	1	4	4	-6	7
18	Verona	9	1	2	6	-9	5
19	Cremonese	9	0	3	6	-12	3
20	Sampdoria	9	0	3	6	-12	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lazio	5	4	0	1	+8	12
2	Milan	5	4	0	1	+6	12
3	Juventus	5	3	2	0	+8	11
4	Udinese	5	3	2	0	+7	11
5	Napoli	4	3	1	0	+7	10
6	Inter	4	3	0	1	+5	9
7	Roma	4	3	0	1	+4	9
8	Atalanta	4	2	2	0	+3	8
9	Spezia	4	2	2	0	+2	8
10	Fiorentina	5	2	2	1	-1	8
11	Salernitana	5	2	1	2	+3	7
12	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	+3	7
13	Bologna	5	1	3	1	+0	6
14	Monza	5	2	0	3	-1	6
15	Torino	4	1	2	1	+0	5
16	Lecce	4	0	3	1	-1	3
17	Verona	4	1	0	3	-4	3
18	Empoli	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Sampdoria	5	0	2	3	-6	2
20	Cremonese	4	0	1	3	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Atalanta	5	4	1	0	+6	13
3	Roma	5	3	1	1	-1	10
4	Udinese	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Lazio	4	2	2	0	+8	8
6	Milan	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Empoli	5	1	3	1	+0	6
8	Inter	5	2	0	3	-3	6
9	Torino	5	2	0	3	-3	6
10	Sassuolo	4	1	2	1	-2	5
11	Lecce	5	1	1	3	-2	4
12	Monza	4	1	1	2	-4	4
13	Salernitana	4	0	3	1	-5	3
14	Juventus	4	0	2	2	-3	2
15	Cremonese	5	0	2	3	-4	2
16	Verona	5	0	2	3	-5	2
17	Fiorentina	4	0	1	3	-3	1
18	Bologna	4	0	1	3	-6	1
19	Sampdoria	4	0	1	3	-6	1
20	Spezia	5	0	0	5	-12	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.