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Taça de Portugal

Referee: Flávio Lima

Nacional

U T T T S

3–1

Full-time

Oliveirense

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Oliveirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/1 matches

Win Ø 59%

17%

100%

Points per game

0,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

1,0

4,0

Conceded

2,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+4,0

This season — Taça de Portugal · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

2,0

4,0

Scored

2,0

4,0

Conceded

0,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+4,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Nacional 39. · Oliveirense 32. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	FC Serpa	2	2	0	0	+11	6
2	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+9	6
3	Beira-Mar	2	2	0	0	+9	6
4	Dumiense	2	2	0	0	+8	6
5	Pêro Pinheiro	2	2	0	0	+7	6
6	Fontinhas	2	2	0	0	+7	6
7	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Montalegre	2	2	0	0	+6	6
9	Valadares Gaia	2	2	0	0	+5	6
10	Sanjoanense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
11	Moreirense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
12	Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+5	6
13	Felgueiras 1932	2	2	0	0	+4	6
14	Sertanense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
15	Canelas 2010	2	2	0	0	+4	6
16	Vilaverdense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
17	Olhanense	3	2	0	1	+2	6
18	Bragança	2	2	0	0	+2	6
19	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
20	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+2	6
21	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+2	4
22	Pombal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
23	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
24	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
25	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	1	0	+1	4
26	Camacha	2	1	1	0	+1	4
27	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
28	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+5	3
29	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
30	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+4	3
31	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+4	3
32	Oliveirense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
33	Merelinense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
34	Caldas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
35	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
36	Courense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
38	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
39	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
40	Amora	2	1	0	1	+1	3
41	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Ferreiras	2	1	0	1	+1	3
43	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Farense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Imortal Albufeira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
52	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
53	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
54	Resende	2	1	0	1	+0	3
55	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	União de Leiria	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
60	Lagos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
61	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
62	Joane	2	1	0	1	-2	3
63	Vilafranquense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
64	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
65	AR São Martinho	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Machico	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
71	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
73	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
98	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
99	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
100	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
101	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
102	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
113	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
114	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
115	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
116	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
117	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
118	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
119	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
120	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
121	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
122	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
123	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
124	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
125	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
126	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
127	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
128	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
129	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
130	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
131	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
132	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
133	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
134	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0
135	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+9	6
2	Pêro Pinheiro	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Valadares Gaia	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Vilaverdense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Bragança	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Pombal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
11	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+5	3
12	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
13	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+4	3
14	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Caldas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
21	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Lagos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Ferreiras	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
30	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
31	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
32	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
35	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
36	Olhanense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
37	AR São Martinho	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Machico	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Merelinense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Resende	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	União de Leiria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
61	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
62	Joane	1	0	0	1	-3	0
63	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
65	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
66	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
67	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
68	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
69	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
70	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
71	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Beira-Mar	2	2	0	0	+9	6
2	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Montalegre	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+8	3
8	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Merelinense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Oliveirense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Olhanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Courense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Amora	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Joane	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Farense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Imortal Albufeira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Vilafranquense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
37	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
38	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Camacha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
77	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
79	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
80	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
81	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
82	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
83	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.